Photo/IllutrationThe medals for the Tokyo 2020 Olympics, from left, silver, gold and bronze. The top row shows the back of the medals, and the lower row shows the reverse side. (Asahi Shimbun file photo)

Japan can expect a more than 50 percent hike in their medal tally at their home Olympics but will still fall significantly short of toppling China from the second position, data analysts Gracenote predicted exactly six months before the Tokyo Games.

Gracenote had earlier identified United States, China and Japan as the biggest beneficiaries of the four-year ban on Russia by the World Anti-Doping Agency.

The United States have been tipped to top the medal table for the seventh successive Games with a haul of 117, including 47 gold, at Tokyo.

China, after falling to 70 medals in Rio, have been projected to bounce back in Tokyo and finish second with 43 gold medals.

“While Japan is expected to improve on its Rio 2016 medal total by over 50 percent, this increase is not likely enough for the host nation to genuinely challenge China for second place,” Gracenote said in a statement.

Japan won a record-breaking 41 medals in Rio but might improve to 65 with gains expected from a combination of more medals in all their strongest sports and potential success in new and returning sports.

The Netherlands, who won 19 medals in Rio, can expect a record haul of 41, including 16 gold, riding on better performance in cycling and sailing.

According to the study, which considers results data from key competitions since the last Games, Britain, who came second in Rio, will finish outside the top five with a significant drop in their medal count in Tokyo.

The study projects a drop of 25 medals for Britain, mainly in cycling, gymnastics and rowing.

The Tokyo 2020 Olympics will run July 24 to Aug. 9.