Ozawa looks past Fukuda to attain his cherished goal

Machiavellian to the core, opposition leader Ichiro Ozawa has apparently decided that Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda is too weak to be considered a worthy opponent.

Not only that, the Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan) leader is shifting gear in his plotting to take control of the government.

Ozawa, 65, is now convinced that Fukuda will not dissolve the Lower House and call a snap election while he is in office.

While that remains Ozawa's ultimate goal, associates of the wily politician say he is now placing his bets on Fukuda's successor to realize his long-cherished dream of a change in government.

Those close to Ozawa say that unless he is intricately involved in a stratagem that focuses party attention on him he will fail to maintain political momentum.

Ozawa initially felt he could discuss with Fukuda the possibility of a grand coalition that would also include a tacit agreement on an early Lower House dissolution.

However, Fukuda's handling of the nomination for a new Bank of Japan governor has apparently convinced Ozawa that the prime minister is nothing more than a lame duck.

Ozawa went into attack mode when he was asked Tuesday to comment on Fukuda's performance as prime minister in his first six months.

"We saw no instance during the past half year of an implementation of what the prime minister is thinking, or his ideology or policy," Ozawa said. "Since he is the leader of the ruling party he has responsibility and he must make the final decision. However, I have no idea what he wants to do as head of the ruling party."

Those close to Ozawa said Fukuda's decision to stick to the nomination of Toshiro Muto as BOJ governor was likely the last straw that convinced Ozawa that Fukuda is unsuited to be the nation's leader.

When the opposition-controlled Upper House rejected Muto's nomination on March 12, a fellow Minshuto Diet member asked Ozawa, "It's over for Fukuda, isn't it?"

Ozawa nodded silently.

On March 14, Ozawa attended a meeting of second-term Lower House Minshuto members at which he for the first time made mention of toppling the Fukuda Cabinet.

"The Fukuda Cabinet doesn't have the strength to dissolve the Lower House so we have no choice but to exert pressure on it into resigning," Ozawa said.

A Diet member close to Ozawa explained the Minshuto leader's thinking.

"If Fukuda resigned and the new Liberal Democratic Party president was someone like the popular (former foreign minster) Taro Aso, then the LDP's support rate would improve. Ozawa would then wait for the new leader to dissolve the Lower House," the colleague said.

The relationship between Ozawa and Fukuda has been watched closely over the past six months because of Minshuto's sometimes deft political maneuvering.

Ozawa triggered extreme unease within his party when he offered to enter into a grand coalition with the LDP. But he failed to eliminate distrust in his policy decisions by also saying that he would abide by the decision of Minshuto executives to not proceed along that path.

As long as Minshuto members fretted over his intentions, Ozawa exerted reasonable influence over the party.

Ozawa also initially appeared to favor Muto's nomination as governor of the central bank, rationalizing that it would cause less confusion in money markets.

But when he realized the extent of opposition to Muto within Minshuto, Ozawa changed direction and began taking a more negative view of Muto's nomination.

Having now cut off all ties with Fukuda, there is no turning back for Ozawa. If the Fukuda Cabinet is toppled, a Lower House dissolution and snap election could be in the offing.

Ozawa will have to prepare for that, knowing that the election will be his last chance to gain control of the government.(IHT/Asahi: March 27,2008)