Minshuto set to win in Yamaguchi race

IWAKUNI, Yamaguchi Prefecture--Hideo Hiraoka, the Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan) candidate, celebrated as his victory appeared a sure thing in the Lower House by-election in Yamaguchi No. 2 district on Sunday.

Minshuto candidate Hideo Hiraoka, second from right, celebrates his victory in Sunday's Lower House by-election with his supporters in Iwakuni, Yamaguchi Prefecture.(SHOMA FUJIWAKI/ THE ASAHI SHIMBUN)

Early returns indicated Hiraoka, 54, had a strong lead over Shigetaro Yamamoto, 59, the candidate fielded by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner New Komeito.

The race was the first national election since Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda took office in September, and both camps took the challenge seriously. Each sent senior party members to campaign across the electoral district in the most "unprecedented all-out battle" of recent years.

The by-election was held to fill a seat vacated by Yoshihiko Fukuda, an LDP lawmaker who resigned to run in the Iwakuni mayoral election in February.

For the prime minister, defeat for his party's candidate will further undermine his leadership in the Diet and within the LDP.

Eager voices within the LDP are likely to call for a change in leadership, hoping a new leader with greater popularity can revive the ruling party's fortunes with voters.

Minshuto, meanwhile, called the Yamaguchi contest a "must-win battle" needed to buoy its support in Diet debate over the coalition plan to reinstate later this week provisional gas and other road-related taxes that expired at the end of March.

Another factor that likely aided Hiraoka's victory was Minshuto's strong campaign against the government's recent implementation of health insurance premium deductions from pension benefits paid to people 75 or older, which came on top of the Social Insurance Agency debacle involving missing pension records.

Regardless of the outcome Sunday, the ruling coalition will forge ahead with plans to revive the gasoline surcharge of 25 yen per liter in a second vote Wednesday in the Lower House.

It also plans to ram through a bill on May 12 to use revenue from the gas tax exclusively for road construction over the next decade.

Still, an election defeat will sap Fukuda's leadership within his party, raising internal opposition against his efforts, especially among younger Diet members.

Much depends on Fukuda's statesmanship abilities during his upcoming May summit meeting with Chinese leader Hu Jintao and the Group of Eight summit meeting at Lake Toyako, Hokkaido, in July.

Minshuto, for its part, will bank on public support for its policies and become even more confrontational in the Diet to push for a general election as soon as possible.

Minshuto leaders, including President Ichiro Ozawa, are to meet Monday to discuss a censure motion against Fukuda.

The party plans to propose the motion in the Upper House if the ruling bloc rams through the gas-tax road construction bill on May 12.(IHT/Asahi: April 28,2008)