EDITORIAL: LDP defeat in by-election

For beleaguered Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda, the election defeat on Sunday couldn't have come at a worse time.

The candidate supported by his Liberal Democratic Party was beaten decisively by the contender backed by the main opposition party, Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan), in the Lower House by-election for Yamaguchi Prefecture's No. 2 district.

The poll came three days before the expected Lower House vote on a bill to revive the expired gasoline tax surcharges. The outcome crushed any hope Fukuda might have had of gaining the political capital needed to break the legislative gridlock in the divided Diet and push through his policy initiatives.

Despite the electoral drubbing, however, the ruling coalition plans to use its two-thirds majority in the Lower House to ram the tax bill through. But the poll results must have made the ruling camp painfully aware of the strong voter discontent over the way the nation is governed.

The Fukuda Cabinet's approval ratings have plummeted below 30 percent. The voter verdict delivered Sunday will likely make the ruling camp strongly averse to facing an early general election.

For Minshuto, the electoral victory represents clear public support for the hard-line tactics it has adopted in its Diet battles with the ruling camp. In moves that created strains within the party, Minshuto repeatedly rejected the government's nominees for Bank of Japan governor. Coming after the bruising parliamentary fight, Sunday's win will do a lot to help Minshuto chief Ichiro Ozawa rebuild his damaged power base within the party.

The question for Minshuto is whether it should seize on this victory to submit a censure motion against Fukuda, setting the stage for an all-out parliamentary war with the ruling alliance. But will such a move really force Fukuda to dissolve the Lower House for a snap poll?

Minshuto faces a tough decision.

Exit polls and other information showed that many voters in Yamaguchi Prefecture were affected by national policy issues. That suggests there was strong disgruntlement among voters about the new health insurance program for people aged 75 or older, as well as about the gasoline surcharges.

The ruling camp campaigned on local issues, such as the proposal to make the U.S. Marine Corps Air Station in Iwakuni, Yamaguchi Prefecture, available for civilian airline services. But this campaign strategy failed to win the hearts and minds of voters.

In this sense, the by-election gave voters an opportunity to show their evaluation of Fukuda's performance in his first seven months in office. Although it was a judgment made by voters in only one of the 300 single-seat constituencies around the nation, it delivered an unmistakable political message to the government and the ruling coalition.

For one thing, voters in Yamaguchi made clear their disapproval of the ruling camp's plan to use its overwhelming majority in the Lower House to pass the bill to put the gasoline levy back in place.

After a series of revelations showed wasteful and unjustifiable spending of the revenues devoted for building roads, many taxpayers are clearly unwilling to pay the surcharges of 25 yen per liter of gasoline as they used to.

The ruling coalition also plans to enact on May 12 a separate bill to maintain this road-funding scheme for 10 more years by using its majority in the Lower House again. Fukuda has promised to scrap the road-specific taxes at the end of fiscal 2008. Not surprisingly, however, many Japanese doubt whether the prime minister can deliver on his promise.

Another factor behind the ruling camp's electoral defeat was the newly introduced health insurance program for the elderly. Fukuda has said the new system is based on sound logic and thinking. Such remarks make us wonder whether he really understands the anger and anxiety of elderly people.

No system can work unless it is trusted by the public. The seriousness of the situation lies in the fact that public confidence in the health-care system has become shaky.

If the ruling coalition doesn't take the results of the by-election seriously and refuses to change its plans concerning the votes on these controversial pieces of legislation, calls for an early general election will grow louder among voters.

--The Asahi Shimbun, April 28(IHT/Asahi: April 29,2008)