EDITORIAL: Russia's new leadership

An odd, two-man power system has emerged in Russia, comprising the newly elected President Dmitri Medvedev, 42, and newly named Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who just finished his eight-year tenure as president.

Under the Russian Constitution, the president is head of state and holds the biggest power, including that of appointing or axing the prime minister. But for the time being, it seems certain that veteran Putin will hold onto the reins of power.

According to the pundits, however, the future relationship between these two men could take two very different paths.

The first view is the "theory of 20-year Putin dynasty." In this scenario, Medvedev is nothing but a puppet for Putin, who will return as president four years from now, to serve another two terms. His total time in power would thus cover about two decades.

This theory stems from the fact that in addition to taking on the post of prime minister, Putin has also taken over the leadership of Russia's legislature, the Federal Assembly.

In the assembly's lower house elections held last December, Putin personally ran as the No. 1 candidate on the proportional representation list of his United Russia party, which has formed the government.

The result was a landslide victory for the party, which took about 70 percent of the seats. Putin then stepped into the leadership of the United Russia party after his presidency came to an end. As the legislature also has the power to dismiss the president, Putin has now reached a position from which he cannot be readily ousted.

However, it is hard to call this arrangement democratic.

Considering the social confusion that has existed in the country since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the desire for stability that the Russian people feel above all else is understandable. But any push by a regime to stay in power could actually backfire by triggering social unrest. This is because as the ranks of the middle class grow, so too will calls for greater freedoms.

We far prefer the second scenario that is being discussed. Under that, Putin will exercise his authority largely to avoid disorder during the power transition period, with Medvedev soon learning to stand on his own feet.

Though Putin's administration was stable, it was built on a power balance shared by former secret service people, prominent bureaucrats, those who are running the newly rising conglomerates and other powerful groups. It will be no easy task for the new president, who is short on experience, to establish a new equilibrium.

While Medvedev says he wants to carry on Putin's policies, he also speaks of establishing the rule of law, expanding freedoms, emerging from an economy smacking of state control and other admirable goals.

Putin's autocratic rule forms the first stage of Russia's reconstruction, but we would welcome the coming second stage, if it leads to a softer and freer Russia. That would bring true stability and development.

Either way, confusion will result. It remains unclear how Medvedev and Putin will share the work. While the price of crude oil, which generates Russia's foreign currency reserves, remains high, the country is seeing higher inflation and a widening gap between the rich and the poor. If dissatisfaction heightens, a power struggle is inevitable.

Moscow's relations with the West have cooled, while discord with former Soviet republics, such as Georgia and Ukraine, drags on. The two leaders cannot afford to follow separate diplomatic paths. The new president must become his own man quickly.

--The Asahi Shimbun, May 9(IHT/Asahi: May 10,2008)