Political focus switches to Tokyo election

Official campaigning kicked off Friday for the Tokyo metropolitan assembly election, widely seen as a bellwether for the Lower House ballot that could be held as early as next month.

Speaking on behalf of ruling party candidates in the Tokyo election, Prime Minister Taro Aso campaigned as if his political career is on the line.

In many ways, it is.

At stake are 127 seats, and the outcome of the July 12 vote will have ramifications that could shake up the central government.

Both Aso's ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the main opposition Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan) are viewing the Tokyo assembly vote as a precursor of the Lower House election that must be called by September.

The LDP and its junior coalition partner New Komeito also support Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara within the Tokyo assembly and the two parties are seeking to maintain their majority.

For its part, Minshuto is striving to upset the balance. In every Tokyo assembly election held since 1969, the LDP has won the most seats.

If the LDP fails to maintain a majority with New Komeito, or if Minshuto captures more seats than the LDP, calls for Aso's removal as LDP president will likely grow louder within the party.

Sources said Aso is considering dissolving the Lower House and calling a snap election soon after the July 12 vote. However, a poor showing by the LDP could trigger moves to replace Aso and hinder his attempt to dissolve the chamber.

Both Aso and Minshuto leader Yukio Hatoyama hit the streets of Tokyo on Friday to campaign on behalf of party candidates.

"The economy has finally bottomed out," Aso said in Ome. "A major task now facing us is to push for more growth."

The LDP and New Komeito hold a combined 70 seats in the Tokyo assembly, a comfortable majority over the 64-seat make or break margin.

The LDP is fielding 58 candidates and Aso has appeared on behalf of all but one. The exception is the candidate who represents the islands of the Izu chain.

Aso is maintaining a stoic composure in the face of his mounting problems.

"The results will not directly affect" national politics, he asserted, even while acknowledging that it is an important election that has a direct bearing on the Lower House vote.

Other top LDP executives also campaigned in Tokyo on Friday with the exception of Makoto Koga, chairman of the Election Strategy Council, who was in Shizuoka Prefecture to campaign on behalf of the LDP candidate in Sunday's gubernatorial election.

New Komeito has set its sights on all 23 of its candidates winning seats.

Minshuto is fielding 58 candidates in its bid to tip the power balance.

Hatoyama appeared with Naoto Kan, Minshuto's acting president who is also head of the party's Tokyo chapter, in Tsukiji.

"With one vote you can change Tokyo and you can change Japan," Hatoyama said. "This will be a battle to return this nation and Tokyo to the hands of the public through Minshuto."

Minshuto is hoping the Tokyo assembly election will give it the momentum for the final push to topple the LDP from its decades of almost uninterrupted power.

One issue that could stunt Minshuto's efforts is the recent disclosure of improper political donations to Hatoyama.

With the two major parties pulling out all the stops in the Tokyo assembly election, the smaller opposition parties are basically being drowned out. The Japanese Communist Party argues that it is the true opposition because Minshuto often acts as if it was part of the ruling bloc, for example, by voting for proposals put forward by the nationalistic Ishihara.

A total of 221 candidates are running for the 127 seats.(IHT/Asahi: July 4,2009)