DPJ has clear shot at two-thirds majority

The opposition Democratic Party of Japan could win 320, or two-thirds, of the 480 seats in Sunday's Lower House election, enabling it to ram bills through the Diet, an Asahi Shimbun survey showed.

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party, meanwhile, will likely win only about 100 seats, dealing a serious setback to the party that has held nearly uninterrupted control over the government for more than half a century, the survey showed.

The LDP had used its overwhelming majority in the Lower House to pass bills, including those for anti-terrorism refueling missions, through a second vote in the lower chamber after the bills were rejected in the opposition-controlled Upper House.

Although the DPJ appears set to hold similar power after Sunday, the situation could change as nearly 40 percent of the respondents said they have yet to decide on which candidates to vote for in single-seat constituencies. And nearly 30 percent were undecided on which party to choose in the proportional representation portion of the election.

The Asahi Shimbun conducted the telephone survey on eligible voters in all 300 single-seat constituencies from Saturday to Tuesday. Of the 190,338 people contacted, 130,879, or 69 percent, gave valid responses.

Information obtained through daily coverage was also used to predict the election results.

According to the survey, the DPJ has maintained its comfortable lead seen at the Aug. 18 start of official election campaigning.

The party could win in 240 single-seat constituencies, a remarkable improvement from the 52 it won in the previous election in September 2005.

In 188 of the 263 electoral districts where DPJ and LDP candidates are battling head-to-head, the opposition politicians are comfortably ahead, according to the survey.

In 28 other constituencies, DPJ candidates are slightly leading their LDP rivals.

DPJ candidates could sweep all single-seat constituencies in Hokkaido, Iwate, Niigata, Yamanashi, Nagano, Aichi, Shiga and Nagasaki prefectures, according to the survey.

In Hokkaido, former Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobutaka Machimura, 64, in the No. 5 district, former Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa, 56, in the No. 11 district, and former LDP Secretary-General Tsutomu Takebe, 68, in the No. 12 district, are all trailing DPJ candidates.

The DPJ candidates are particularly strong in urban areas, such as Tokyo and Saitama and Chiba prefectures.

In Tokyo, the DPJ won in only one of the 25 single-seat constituencies in 2005. This time, the party will likely win in 20.

Former Defense Minister Yuriko Koike, 57, a rival of Prime Minister Taro Aso in the LDP presidential election last fall, has fallen behind a female DPJ rookie in the Tokyo No. 10 district. Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano, 71, in the Tokyo No. 1 district, is also trailing his DPJ rival. The two have a 50-percent chance of being re-elected either from the single-seat constituency or through proportional representation.

The DPJ is also expected to reverse its poor showing in 2005 in rural regions of Chugoku, Shikoku and Kyushu.

In the Fukuoka No. 2 district, former LDP Vice President Taku Yamasaki, 72, could fail in both his constituency and proportional representation.

In the proportional representation part, the DPJ will likely improve on its performance in the previous election in all 11 regional blocs.

It could win 90 or more seats, compared with 61 in the 2005 election.

On the other hand, the LDP is fighting an unprecedented uphill battle. Its candidates are well in front of their rivals in only 18 single-seat constituencies and are slightly ahead in six others.

Many big-shot LDP politicians, including former prime ministers, are struggling.

Aso's predecessor, Yasuo Fukuda is running neck-and-neck with a new female DPJ candidate in the Gunma No. 4 district, where he has always won easily since the introduction of the single-seat constituency system.

Another former prime minister, Yoshiro Mori, 72, is slightly trailing another new female DPJ candidate in the Ishikawa No. 2 district. Although Mori is on an LDP proportional representation list, he may still not be re-elected.

In the proportional representation portion, the LDP won 77 seats in 2005. Now, the possibility remains that the LDP will fall short of the record-low 56 seats obtained in the 2000 Lower House election.

Meanwhile, the LDP's junior coalition partner, New Komeito, which has fielded candidates in eight single-seat constituencies, is lagging behind in five districts and in close battles with opposition parties in three.

In the previous election, New Komeito won 31 seats, including those in the proportional representation portion. The party's number is expected to fall below 30 on Sunday.

The Japanese Communist Party, which is not expected to win in any single-seat constituency, is likely to clinch nine seats in the proportional representation portion, matching its total in 2005.

The Social Democratic Party appears heading for victory in five single-seat constituencies, apparently a result of its cooperation with the DPJ. The SDP is also likely to win four proportional representation seats.

The SDP won a total of seven seats in the 2005 election.

The People's New Party is poised to win in three single-seat constituencies, but it could be shut out in the proportional representation part.

Before the Lower House was dissolved on July 21, the party had four seats.

Your Party will likely maintain the total of four seats it held before the Lower House dissolution.

New Party Nippon could win in one single-seat constituency, while New Party Daichi appears set to win one seat in the proportional representation segment.(IHT/Asahi: August 28,2009)