EDITORIAL: Post-Kyoto Protocol

Doubts have arisen over whether the 15th Conference of the Parties (COP15) to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), scheduled to be held in Copenhagen in December, will reach agreement on a post-Kyoto Protocol framework to curb global warming.

The uncertainty stems from the UNFCCC secretariat's recent observation to the effect that the COP15 must strive to reach a political accord on the basic outline of the new framework. It said that would pave the way for the framework itself to be adopted next year.

The 1997 Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012. Considering the time it will take for all parties to ratify the new framework, reaching an agreement by the end of this year is crucial if it is to take effect in 2013. But meeting this deadline may no longer be attainable under the current schedule of negotiations.

The main hurdle lies in hard-to-reconcile conflicts of interest between developed countries and developing or newly emerging economies.

Developed nations have been urging China and other emerging powers to make efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions, only to be told that they themselves ought to be setting an example to the rest of the world by drastically slashing their own emissions.

Another problem is that U.S. President Barack Obama is having a hard time exerting his leadership on the issue. Faced with opposition in Congress, there is no chance for his anti-climate change bill to become law before the end of this year. This has effectively sidelined Obama from any position of influence in international negotiations.

Given the situation, it will be difficult to get a post-Kyoto Protocol framework drawn up before the COP15. This understanding must have been what made the UNFCCC secretariat go for the pragmatic approach of making sure the Copenhagen meeting will at least reach a political agreement wherever possible, so that there will be no lengthy period of international inaction after the Copenhagen meeting.

This, however, does not diminish the importance of the COP15 in any way. The direction of future negotiations will be determined by the substance of the basic political accord. The key player nations must bear this in mind and remain firmly committed to ironing out their differences.

But there are many challenges. The developed nations must clearly indicate their own emissions reduction targets and try to get developing and emerging economies to commit to reduction efforts. It will also be necessary to offer funding and technological assistance to the developing world. In short, as much as possible should be accomplished in Copenhagen so as to reduce the amount of "unfinished homework" for next year.

This has ushered in a busy season of diplomacy. Ad hoc working groups' sessions of the UNFCCC kicked off Monday in Barcelona, and the 2009 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting will start on Nov. 8 in Singapore. Also slated are Japan-U.S. and China-U.S. summits. We hope the parties concerned will seize every opportunity to advance their diplomatic negotiations to reach an effective and substantial political agreement at the COP15.

Ultimately, it is for the leaders of all UNFCCC member nations to give substance to the COP15 accord by demonstrating their strong resolve in Copenhagen for the adoption of the post-Kyoto Protocol framework.

In particular, we strongly urge Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao to attend the COP15.

The United States pulled out of the Kyoto Protocol in 2001 and China currently is under no obligation to cut its greenhouse gas emissions. Yet, the two countries together account for 40 percent of emissions worldwide. Japan should join forces with European nations in urging the United States and China to participate actively in climate change talks.

--The Asahi Shimbun, Nov. 3(IHT/Asahi: November 4,2009)