Number of flu cases tops 'warning level'

The number of influenza patients across Japan has surpassed the government's "warning level" for the first time this season, raising concerns that children with serious symptoms of new swine flu may be crowded out of hospitals.

The National Institute of Infectious Diseases said Friday the average number of influenza patients at about 5,000 medical institutions throughout the country was 33.28 in the week to Nov. 1, up from 24.62 in the previous week.

The estimated number of patients is 1.54 million, and the culmative total since July comes to 5.85 million.

Most of them are believed to have been infected with the new swine flu virus, and many of them were children, officials said.

An average above 30 triggers an influenza warning, the highest level in the government's three-stage alert system.

The health ministry announced Friday that it had requested all 47 prefectures to vaccinate small children ahead of schedule. It said children between the ages of 1 and 6 as well as those in up to third grade of elementary school should receive flu shots from mid-November instead of the first half of December.

The nationwide average number of flu patients often exceeds 30 during the peak flu periods in winter. Over the past 10 years, the average topped 40 only once, when it reached 50 in the winter of 2005.

But this season could be more serious because of the swine flu epidemic, which is estimated to have sickened millions and has been blamed for dozens of deaths.

By prefecture, Aichi had the largest average number of patients, at 54.44, followed by: Akita at 53.55; Hokkaido at 49.08; Saitama at 39.39; Kanagawa at 38.39; and Tokyo at 28.09.

Health experts say early treatment is crucial for patients with serious symptoms, but this is becoming increasingly difficult, especially in urban areas, with the soaring number of flu patients.

According to a survey by the Tokyo metropolitan government, children in the capital can be hospitalized at 85 medical institutions, excluding cancer treatment centers.

However, only 39 of the 85 plan to accept children with serious swine flu symptoms, including diseases of the brain and pneumonia that require special equipment.

As of early September, 550 of the 1,900 beds at the 39 medical institutions were empty.

The Tokyo metropolitan government earlier estimated that if 30 percent of people in Tokyo suffered from swine flu, 462 patients 15 years old or younger would have serious symptoms during the peak period.

Although the figure is well below 550, the estimate was flawed.

In reality, 80 percent of the influenza patients requiring hospitalization during the period from late July to Nov. 3 were 14 years old or younger. The number of such patients is expected to exceed 550.

In addition, patients other than swine flu sufferers must also use the empty beds.

According to a survey conducted by the Kanagawa prefectural government in the summer, at least 40 hospitals were able to accept children as inpatients.

But the situation has since changed because of the epidemic.

"If asked now whether it is possible for all of the hospitals to accept child patients, it could be difficult depending on the number of empty beds or the level of seriousness of their diseases," an official of the Kanagawa prefectural government's Public Health and Welfare Department said. "We cannot take the children to hospitals that do not have sufficient systems (to treat them)."

The official said the government may have to ask 14 emergency centers for cooperation in taking care of patients in serious condition "as a last resort."(IHT/Asahi: November 7,2009)