Futenma relocation plan stuck between a rock and a hard place

Tokyo and Washington released a report Tuesday as scheduled on relocating the U.S. Futenma air station, but elections in Japan could again throw the entire plan out of sync.

The report contained the results of experts' examinations on plans to build a facility on landfill off Nago's Henoko district in Okinawa Prefecture to take over the functions of the U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma in Ginowan, also in the prefecture.

But the studies did not resolve differences over what type of runway should be built at the Nago site and other issues.

"The relocation project will not make progress for the time being due to circumstances in Okinawa. But we must show the United States that it is making progress," a Foreign Ministry official said.

That could be tough to achieve, depending on the results of the ruling Democratic Party of Japan's presidential election this month and the Okinawa gubernatorial election in November.

Prime Minister Naoto Kan and former party Secretary-General Ichiro Ozawa will battle in the DPJ election. While their differences over policies and funding are well known, they also disagree on the U.S. military situation in Okinawa.

"We can find a solution if we discuss the issue fully with Okinawa Prefecture and the U.S. government," Ozawa said at a news conference Wednesday. "We cannot carry out the current plan as it is due to opposition from Okinawa residents."

Kan's basic stance is that Japan should abide by its agreement in May with the United States to essentially follow the contents of a 2006 accord.

He told the same news conference Wednesday, "The government needs a sincere response (to Okinawa Prefecture), but nullifying the Japan-U.S. agreement will cause confusion again."

Ozawa in mid-June told DPJ lawmaker Hiroshi Kawauchi, "The current government (led by Kan) is not trying to understand the feelings of Okinawa."

When Ozawa was president of the opposition DPJ in 2008, the party's "Okinawa Vision," based on Ozawa's ideas, advocated the relocation of the Futenma air base outside of Okinawa Prefecture or Japan.

Late last year, he said, "Is it permissible to bury that blue, beautiful sea?"

Many DPJ lawmakers share Ozawa's view.

If Ozawa wins the election and becomes prime minister, he could abolish the relocation program, leading to a repeat of Japan's strained relations with the United States that were seen when Kan's predecessor, Yukio Hatoyama, tried to move the Futenma air station outside Okinawa.

The U.S. government expects a final decision on construction of the Nago facility early next year, although some officials say a decision will likely not come until spring.

In the meantime, people in Okinawa who felt betrayed by Hatoyama when he essentially returned to the 2006 accord could use their voting power to delay the relocation plan.

On Sept. 12, a municipal assembly election will be held in Nago. The current Nago mayor, Susumu Inamine, opposes Futenma relocation within the prefecture and also expressed dissatisfaction with the results of experts' examinations on the new site.

"The contents of the report have not taken into account the thoughts of the citizens in Nago and Okinawa Prefecture. I cannot accept them at all," Inamine said.

In the Nov. 28 gubernatorial election, Okinawa Governor Hirokazu Nakaima, who had accepted the relocation to Nago on certain conditions, is expected to be challenged by Ginowan Mayor Yoichi Iha.

A victory by Iha or another candidate opposed to relocation within the prefecture will increase the difficulty for the central government to move the base to Nago.

Although the Japanese and U.S. governments hope Nakaima will be re-elected, he himself has expressed frustration over the indecisiveness of the DPJ-led government concerning the Futenma issue.

Japan and the United States also must work out their own differences.

The report released Tuesday offered two plans for the runway: building two runways in a V-shape, which is being pushed by the United States, and an I-shaped single runway, endorsed by Japan.

"We have not yet made a judgment on which plan is superior," Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada said.

Other conflicting points not mentioned in the report include flight routes of U.S. military aircraft and whether the facility will be used jointly by the U.S. Marines and the Japanese Self-Defense Forces.