Since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the United States shook
the world, domestic public opinion in Indonesia, home to the
world's largest Muslim population, has wavered.
While the administration of President Megawati Sukarnoputri
has criticized the attacks and declared its support for the U.S.-led
international effort to eradicate terrorism, the Indonesian public
does not fully back the strikes.
When Megawati met U.S. President George W. Bush on Sept. 19,
the two issued a joint statement condemning the attacks as ``indiscriminate,
barbarous acts against innocent citizens,'' and vowed to advance
the international cooperation to stamp out terrorism.
But as the United States prepared to strike back against Afghanistan's
ruling Taliban regime, which harbors the suspected mastermind
of the attacks, Saudi exile Osama bin Laden, anti-U.S. demonstrations
flared across Indonesia.
On Sept. 25, the Indonesian Ulama Council (MUI), the supreme
organ for the interpretation of Islamic doctrine, released a
statement directed at the United States, which was preparing
to strike back at the terrorists. It said the planned attack
against Afghanistan was a manifestation of hostility and hatred
against Muslims as a whole. It invited Muslims worldwide to unite
and take part in a jihad, or holy war, and called on Jakarta
not to be flattered by the United States into supporting plans
to attack Afghanistan.
Two days later, Indonesia's religion minister, Said Agil Al
Munawar, severely criticized the MUI for calling on Muslims to
join the fight against the United States and thereby get involved
in political affairs. He said such behavior must not be tolerated.
Since then, there has been no sign of the turbulence subsiding.
Hard-line Islamic groups declared that if the United States
attacked Afghanistan, they would retaliate by striking out at
U.S. facilities and expelling American nationals. They also began
recruiting soldiers to join the jihad.
Since mid-September, in opposition to the U.S. offensive against
Afghanistan and U.S. and Israeli military action against Muslim
nations, anti-U.S. demonstrations organized by Islamic student
groups have taken place almost daily in major Indonesian cities
such as Jakarta and Surabaya.
Concerned about this development, the Megawati administration
held an unusually long Cabinet meeting on Oct. 4, where officials
agreed to take strong disciplinary action against Indonesian
nationals involved in radical action against foreigners or combat
overseas.
The Megawati administration, whose power base comprises nationalists,
wants to avoid friction with Muslims at any cost in order to
maintain a stable government.
At the same time, however, the administration wants to win the
trust of other nations by joining the international movement
against terrorism, and it hopes to prevent terrorism stemming
from the domestic separatist movement. It faces a difficult choice.
Against this backdrop, the first report that U.S. forces had
begun air strikes targeting military installations in Afghanistan
reached Indonesia on Oct. 7. Initial reports suggested the targets
of the strikes were limited to military bases and terrorist camps.
But even if there are only a handful of civilian victims, it
can never be ruled out that the strikes could provoke a radical
reaction from Indonesian Muslims.
The U.S. offensive intensified anti-American demonstrations
within Indonesia. Some people are even demanding that Jakarta
sever its diplomatic ties with Washington.
In response to these developments, Megawati felt compelled to
compromise, given the state of domestic anti-U.S. public opinion.
On Oct. 14, she implicitly condemned the U.S. and British attacks
on terrorist targets in Afghanistan, saying no individuals, groups
or even governments must be allowed to attack other countries
in such a manner to search for and confine the alleged mastermind
of terrorist acts.
However, it remains to be seen whether her comment will temper
anti-American domestic public opinion. Although the Indonesian
national assembly is maintaining a relatively moderate stance
for now, it could turn against her if the U.S.-led campaign turns
into a protracted war.
The Megawati administration is facing a crucial test: whether
it can firmly establish its stability.
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