The terrorist attacks on the United States on Sept. 11 and the
U.S.-led response are defining policies all across Asia today.
The strikes on targets in Afghanistan have united most Americans
domestically. A global coalition of very different states has
also been rafted together to fight terrorism.
Still, these events threaten to divide some Asians from the
United States, notwithstanding the widespread outrage against
the terrorist attacks. The Bush administration has drawn a line
between those countries that are with them and those who are
not, and is rapidly changing its relationships with many states
in the process.
Over time, divisions may possibly grow amongst Asians themselves.
Japan and other Asians who are close to the United States may
be in danger of having to choose between being with America and
being with their fellow Asians. There are three main reasons
for this.
First, Asians differ in their relation to U.S. power. Japan,
the Republic of Korea (South Korea), Thailand and the Philippines
are American allies and some, like Singapore, enjoy close relations
and view the United States as a relatively benign superpower.
On the other hand, states like Vietnam and China have had different
experiences and are wary of U.S. hegemony. Even within states
that are U.S. allies, segments of society vocally oppose the
United States. In the Philippines after Ferdinand Marcos, for
example, the Left played a leading role in closing U.S. bases
at Clarke and Subic. Similarly in Japan today, some oppose U.S.
bases in Okinawa.
Secondly, several Southeast Asian states are Islamic, like Brunei,
Malaysia and Indonesia, which has the world's largest Muslim
population. Others, like Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines,
also have significant Muslim minorities. It is therefore essential
that the U.S.-led response be understood as being targeted against
terrorists, and not perceived as a war against Islam. This is
especially in Indonesia and Malaysia, which are influential among
Muslim and developing countries.
Despite considerable efforts to this end, protests are recurring
in Indonesia. In Malaysia too, concerns have been publicly raised.
If U.S.-led strikes continue much longer and civilian casualties
mount in Afghanistan, so will questions and resistance. Sensitivities
may be particularly strong during the upcoming Ramadan month,
when Muslims fast and focus on their faith.
This can potentially destabilize societies and possibly affect
the strength of incumbent leaders. In Indonesia, growing anti-U.S.
protests have ended the early hope that the new president, Megawati
Sukarnoputri, could stabilize the country and bring back growth.
As she marks 100 days in office, the economy seems instead to
be in a downward spiral. Politically, the president needs to
be careful not to give a Muslim axis of politicians a chance
to snipe at her, and this caution may limit her government's
ability to openly support U.S. actions.
To a lesser extent, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammed
must also tread carefully to isolate the Islamist opposition
without antagonizing the United States, and affecting major trade
and investment ties.
In the Philippines, while the Gloria Macapagal Arroyo government
stands with the United States, problems may increase in the Muslim
South. In particular, the Abu Sayaf splinter group, which has
kidnapped U.S. and other citizens, may feel cornered and increasingly
turn to violence and crime.
There is, as such, a dangerous asymmetry in the response to
the U.S. strikes. While popular in the United States, they put
pressure on governments in other countries where there are strong
sentiments for the suffering of fellow Muslims.
Asians may also be divided because of their own underlying rivalries.
U.S. efforts to build a broad coalition have brought about a
marked improvement in previously uneasy relations with several
countries, including China. An improved U.S.-China relationship
can potentially unsettle others in the region.
Japan, traditionally America's closest ally in Asia, has been
anxious to demonstrate its support for the U.S.-led actions.
The stated reason is to avoid repeating the mistake of the Gulf
War, when considerable monetary assistance was given without
much appreciation. An additional reason may well be the wish
not to be on the sidelines, while China is active and U.S.-China
relations strengthen.
Yet Japan's actions to give assistance have only increased tensions
with neighbors. Considerable numbers in Asia and in Japan itself
still remain uncomfortable with any sign that Japan is resuming
a military role, no matter how worthy the cause.
Nevertheless, all should take comfort that Japanese involvement
in military frontline operations has been ruled out. More Asians
should respect the pressures that Japan feels to be of assistance
to the U.S.-led efforts. Some will accept a Japanese role in
assisting in logistics and rear-area operations. To do less may
be unrealistic, given the U.S.-Japan alliance. Still, Japan's
actions will be closely watched. The fact that Japan already
has one of the largest military budgets in the world should not
be ignored. Yet while the provision of military and support assistance
has been controversial, much more attention must be given to
the possibility that Japan can lead in another area of response
to the attacks on the United States. This is in the field of
economics.
The United States and world economies, after all, have been
another victim as the Sept. 11 attacks and their aftermath accelerated
the fall in market confidence. Asian economies have been particularly
vulnerable. Many had not recovered from the regional crisis that
began in 1997 or pressed ahead with reforms. Most prospered by
increasing their exports to the U.S. market, and as the U.S.
market fell away, so did their growth rates.
These difficult external economic conditions can combine with
internal division in countries like Indonesia to create the danger
of a sharp downward spiral. Japan cannot, of course, cure the
world's economic woes on its own. As the second-largest national
economy in the world, it can, however, play a significant role
in promoting stability and growth. This is especially for its
Asian neighbors.
Much of this, however, is dependent on Japan's own reforms.
A more open and optimistic Japanese market, for example, could
help exports. A healthier banking sector would also be essential
to restart foreign investment. Another prospect is for closer
cooperation between Japan and China, the only economy that seems
so far to have escaped the worst effects of the downturn. While
difficult, closer China-Japan cooperation for economic development
in Asia offers an opportunity to rebalance the triangle of relations
that these two Asian giants have with the United States. This
is especially where the two can combine and work with other states,
such as those in ASEAN.
The recent Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in China
offered an opportunity for this, as China hoped to prioritize
economic issues in contrast to the U.S. emphasis on anti-terrorist
efforts. Another opportunity for this agenda for regional economic
growth and stability came with the ASEAN Plus Three summit, when
the leaders of ASEAN met their counterparts from China, Japan
and South Korea.
In military-related activities, Japan can, at present, only
play a supporting role, and will face continuing controversy.
In the economic field, it can, however, lay a claim to a shared
leadership, especially in Asia. This is no less important. For
military action can only do so much to address terrorism. There
is also a need to address the instability and lack of hope that
create the conditions for extremism and violence. Economic development
and peace building can offer those longer-term solutions and
should not be neglected as Asia grapples with the aftershock
of events. If not, our present efforts will sow seeds for future
danger.
* * *