Recently, Japanese business delegations visiting Beijing often
ask about the ``China threat.'' Chinese leaders and scholars
immediately deny it, saying, ``We are behind our neighbors in
terms of military capabilities and it is out of the question
that we are a threat.''
Most of the time, the discussion gets nowhere.
While China feels the need to explain the increase in its defense
budget, it thinks of itself as a developing country. As such,
it has never crossed its mind that Japan would regard the Chinese
economy as a threat.
Looking from the outside, the Chinese economy has made remarkable
growth. It has continued an average growth of 10 percent for
the last two decades and Shanghai, a typical business center,
has transformed into a modern city almost beyond recognition.
It is true that products bearing the tag ``Made in China'' are
inundating the Japanese market. Perhaps that is why the Japanese
feel threatened.
Actually, however, the size of the Chinese economy is still
less than one-quarter of Japan's. China's accumulation of technology
is limited. Furthermore, its entry into the World Trade Organization
could prompt a sharp rise in imports, which could cause Chinese
companies to go out of business and force workers to lose jobs.
China appears more worried than confident about its future.
According to C.H. Kwan, a senior fellow of the Tokyo-based Research
Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, even now, there is
a difference of some 40 years between the Japanese and Chinese
economies. Even if China continues a high economic growth for
another two decades, its per capita gross domestic product may
or may not reach one-tenth of Japan's. Thus, it has a long way
to go before it can be called a truly industrialized economy,
Kwan said.
It is true that imports from China are rising steeply. However,
most of them are labor-intensive products. In addition, more
than half the total value is made up of development imports by
Japanese companies that advanced to China in search of cheap
labor and products exported by Japanese companies operating locally.
Uniqlo is a typical example.
The increase in trade between the two countries is mutually
beneficial. Development imports benefit Japanese consumers and
the low price of imports is effective in reducing Japanese companies'
production costs, strengthens their competitiveness and promotes
structural reform of industries. At the same time, it leads to
increased exports to China.
Computer-related products, electronics and machinery exported
from China are largely dependent on parts imported from Japan.
Although most of them are labeled ``Made in China,'' actually,
in many cases, the core components with added value are made
in Japan.
Japanese exports to China, including Hong Kong, exceed imports.
According to Kwan, competitive products that both countries export
to each other make up less than 20 percent of all exports between
them. Since China has an abundance of cheap labor and Japan has
an edge over China in terms of funds and technological advancement,
the two countries are not rivals but share a complementary relationship,
Kwan said.
Just a short while ago, most analysts predicted the devaluation
of the renminbi and warned of an imminent Chinese financial crisis.
But such views were suddenly replaced by a possible revaluation
of the currency and the argument of China as a threat. The sudden
shift owes more to the loss of confidence on the part of Japan
as a result of its slumping economy rather than a change in the
Chinese economy itself. Failed policy such as a delay in structural
reform that would make Japanese businesses more competitive may
also have to do with the trend.
Rather than grieving over the situation, Japan urgently needs
to strengthen its safety net for its workers with flexible application
of unemployment insurance and provision of technical support
to job applicants. It should also advance structural reform,
including the trimming of uncompetitive industries, and promote
deregulation.
Although such measures could cause friction, they also provide
an opportunity to build cooperative relations. I don't think
the recent advancement of China presents a threat to Japan, but
it has put strong pressure on Southeast Asian countries, whose
economic standards are close to China's.
China, which is becoming a regional major economic power, has
a responsibility to dispel the anxiety of its neighbors and make
a contribution to the shared prosperity of regional economy.
Meanwhile, Japan, a global economic power, is expected positively
build a system of division of labor with China and the rest of
Asia.
Japan-China cooperation is indispensable for balanced sustainable
growth in East Asia. The two countries should strengthen their
complementary roles. They have an increasingly important responsibility
to take the lead in building a regional economic bloc while paying
consideration to surrounding countries. In the process of cooperation,
they must overcome their differences such as the problem of historical
recognition. What both countries need to share is such a broad
perspective.
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