The war in Iraq may be winding down but there's another war that refuses to die: the war against Muslim secessionist rebels in the Philippines. While these two are happening in places distant from each other, the Iraq war has an impact on the Muslim insurgency. It could inflame anti-US passion among the Muslim radicals, not only in the Philippines but in the rest of Southeast Asia, who see the US invasion of Iraq as a battle against Islam.
Thus, it is likely that the rebels may step up their offensives and intensify their links with other radical groups in the region.
Even governments will be affected. "It could hinder Southeast Asian cooperation in the campaign against terrorism," Commodore Francisco Tolin, vice president for research and special studies at the National Defense College of the Philippines, remarked. "Governments may find it increasingly difficult to stand against public opinion of anti-American sentiments."
The Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) has linked up with local groups and governments are wary of cooperation among the various Islamic radical groups in the region. The Iraq war, as some have pointed out, has increased the risk of terror attacks in the world. Southeast Asian countries with Muslim populations fear most a radicalization of Muslims as an aftermath of the war.
In the Philippines, the military has linked members of the secessionist Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) to the JI. The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) likewise gathered reports that foreigners, mostly Indonesians and Malaysians, have been training in a remote MILF base in Mindanao. It is unclear to the military if these foreign trainees are part of JI. But they are not discounting such terror links.
What has been established is that the MILF did train foreign mujahideen in Camp Abubakar, their main base, in the 1990s. A Philippine intelligence source said the MILF allowed the use of Camp Abubakar for training by Al Qaeda and JI in exchange for arms and money. Late last year, a JI Indonesian operative was reportedly arrested in Sulawesi and admitted having trained in MILF's Abubakar.
But there's another aspect that worries government officials. The jihad volunteers who entered Iraq to help defend it against the US are expected to call for more volunteers to fight the post-Saddam regime. Radical Muslims from the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia may join up. "The problem is when they come back," a ranking intelligence official said. "There will be a new breed of mujahideen."
The MILF opposed the US war in Iraq. But MILF vice chairman for military affairs Al Haj Murad said they have no pans to intensify their operations against the military: "We do not correlate our war with that in Iraq but others may and they can launch sympathy attacks."
The recent bombings in Davao City, a bustling business center in Mindanao, wherein close to 40 people have been killed, were linked to the MILF. Davao Mayor Rodrigo Duterte, relying on his intelligence network, quickly blamed the rebels. He and others, including some in the military, saw it as a retaliatory measure after the MILF camp was attacked by government forces.
Why such fierce retaliation? Government insensitivity to Islamic practices is to blame. The military bombed the MILF camp during Eid-ul-Adha, an important day for Muslims, one of the biggest celebrations in Islam. It marks the end of the Hajj or holy pilgrimage.
At six o'clock in the morning of Feb. 11, as members of the M ILF led by their chairman Salamat Hashim and residents were huddled in prayer in the open air, the military began its assault. This has angered the MILF and other Muslims and has given a religious color to the war fueled by poverty and injustice. "It was like Catholics being attacked during Christmas midnight mass," a government official said.
A ranking Armed Forces official remarked that the timing may have been a mistake but the offensive was on track. The village of Buliok in North Cotabato and about four adjacent villages have been the headquarters of the MILF since Camp Abubakar fell in 2000.
Since then, it's been downhill for peace talks between the government and the MILF. "We're back to zero," Murad said. "We're trying to build confidence again."
What the Armed Forces found in Buliok confirmed their worst suspicions: first, the MILF was beefing up forces; second, they were continuously training their men; and third, they were training foreign nationals. The AFP claimed that they retrieved documents detailing training activities of the MILF, mainly on the use of explosives and sabotage operations. The rebels were also training new recruits.
The MILF has always denied training foreign nationals and any involvement in terror activities. But Murad said their training of members is simply "routine."
It was amidst this backdrop of suspicion and unresolved questions that both sides recently met in exploratory talks in Kuala Lumpur. Malaysia is brokering peace talks between the Philippine government and the MILF.
Norberto Gonzales, presidential adviser, has proposed a new premise for the peace talks especially with the Iraq war changing the configuration. After the war, the Philippines will be, once more, a magnet for terrorism. It is imperative, Gonzales explained, that armed groups demobilize-as part of the peace process.
Gonzales said that the challenge for government is to be able to persuade the MILF to shift paradigms and join the legitimate political arena. If they do so, they will have to lay down their arms. The Philippines plans to introduce a resolution to the Trilateral Commission (composed of Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines) urging these governments to cooperate in disarming their armed groups.
Meanwhile, the issue of camps has to be settled. This has been terribly sensitive for both sides. The MILF has been pressing for recognition of their camps. "There must be a place where the MILF can encamp its forces," said Murad. "We're spread out, mixed with civilians. It's not practical to implement a ceasefire where we have no physical boundaries."
The military is averse to recognizing any rebel camp. After the fall of Abubakar, the MILF has set up small bases in the provinces of Maguindanao, Lanao del Sur, and North Cotabato and shifted to rebel tactics. The military would rather pursue them than see the rebels untouchable, ensconced in their camps.
The author is editor in chief of Newsbreak, a fortnightly news and current affairs magazine in the Philippines. (IHT/Asahi: December 20, 2002)
As it is, it looks like a long road to peace.
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Long Road to Peace