The result of Taiwan's third presidential election might come as a surprise to many local and international observers as President Chen Shui-bian, against all odds, won the re-election with a very small margin. The aftermath controversy and conflict staged by the losing "pan-blue camp" (the old regime alliance of the KMT-PFP led by Lien Chan and James Soong) was also viewed by more as a last empire's strike before its total collapse as well as a necessary growing pain that Taiwan's new democracy has to bear.

The election campaign has been closely fought and an unprecedented assassination attempt even took place when President Chen and his Vice-President Lu were shot and wounded on the eve of election day. The tight competition surprised many and the shooting shocked the world. The unsuccessful assassination might have translated into some degree of sympathy for the victims and increased a little bit of support for the Chen-Lu ticket in the South. On balance, this incident seems to have simply consolidated the votes on both camps.

This presidential election is not only a significant step for Taiwan's democratic consolidation, but also a crucial test of Taiwan's national identity vis-a-vis China's unrealistic sovereignty claim. With President Chen's victory, this election further signifies Taiwan democracy alive by the eventual fall of the authoritarian "minority rule" and the definite establishment of the democratic "majority rule". It also appears to be a second wake-up call to Beijing's leadership who apparently still hold the old mindset that perceives cross-Straits relations in terms of a "civil war" between the communists and the nationalists of the "old China" on the Mainland before 1949.

First of all, what is quite significant is the division of votes nation-wide. After this election, for the first time, we have seen a fifty-fifty percent divide in votes. In the past, the DPP, the pan-green alliance had never managed to reach beyond a 40 percent threshold. There is thus a crucial 10 percent or 1.5 million votes increase for DDP in the last four years. It is also something that has demystified the so-called 'one plus one equals two' assumption.

So where exactly did this 1.5 million votes come from? I think the answers can be found in the following five factors.

The first is the Lee Teng-hui factor. In the year 2000, the accumulated so-called pan-blue vote was estimated at 60 percent, and by these estimates, I guess at least more than 5 percent of the vote has moved from the blue to the green camp. This is largely a result of the pro-Chen position taken by the former President Lee Teng-hui.

Second, looking at the regional factor in terms of voting behavior, we can see a very clear divide between the North and the South. Having said that I don't think it is at all useful to exaggerate the gulf between the North and the South. After all, in reality it is merely an indication that there is consolidation in the North and the South in terms of people's political orientation. The increase of support for DPP has been uniformly from counties to counties and from North to South.

Obviously, the stronghold for the DPP is very much in the South, whereas for the pan-blue it is Taipei. The fact is without the South, the DPP could not have won. Looking closely at the pan-green result, you can see that in the South, every county took the lead, and this lead was what accumulated to win over the great loss in Taipei. Thus, in the future DPP has to work very hard to convince Taipei of it's worth, and likewise the blue camp has to work very hard in the South.

The third factor is the Hakka factor. Historically, the Hakka people had always been pretty much dominated by the former central KMT regime via the local factions, by family/kin ties and then by the local government. But over the last four years, the Hakka have come to see the DPP government performance in a different light.

That is not to say that the Hakka people have finally become more democratic. For the Hakka have always been democratic and reform-minded. Not only have there been Hakka-specific cultural movements, but also when it comes to the social movements coming out of the 1980's, many of the labor and farmer movements have in fact been led by the Hakka activists.

In my view, the Hakka's conservative politics has been over-exaggerated and somewhat misunderstood. For it is not really an ethnicity issue, but rather a regional issue. In the past it has always been the northern Hakka's for the pan-blue, and the southern Hakka's for the green but now this situation has changed. As we can see by the results of this election, in Taoyuan, Hsinchu, and Miaoli counties there has been an increase of 250,000 votes for the DPP in total. This is again an accumulated 10 percent increase. Yet regionally, there are still remaining differences, since Hsinchu, Taoyuan, Miaoli counties continue to show a pro-blue voting behavior against the southern Hakka in Kaosiung and Pingtung who are much more for the green camp.

Yet a fourth factor is that of Taiwan Identity. Many people have spoken a great deal about ethnic problems. This election has shown that it is not much about the ethnic issue, rather is more to do with the Taiwan national identity issue. For example, when we look at the 10 percent increase won by the DPP, though the South factor helped significantly, the fact is the vote in the North also increased. It is an increase that occurred county to county from the North to the South. That means it is not so much a case of the South holding sway, but is instead related to the rising nation-wide Taiwan identity. Therefore the paradigm shift is here: the formation of a new Taiwan national identity. It is a factor that no leader in the future can afford to ignore. Moreover it is clear that taking a very soft or even lenient position vis a vis the PRC is not in line with the Taiwan identity issue.

The fifth factor is then the China factor, which is also the external factor. After a two-time failure in 1996 and the year 2000, China has learned its lesson, and has accepted that keeping quiet is a good strategy. To have done otherwise is equivalent to coming on as booster for the DPP.

As is plain to all, there is a dividing line in the green and blue camps when it comes to the China factor. The pan-green is very clear and firm in facing China. It has a strategy that it outlines as "each nation on each side." Their stand is clearly defined, "Taiwan is Taiwan, China is China." Yet the stance taken by the pan-blue is on the other hand, very vague and blurred. It is that very vagueness that has cast some doubt among the people. Of particular concern is the fact that the pan-blue has not shown very clearly how they would deal with the 496 missiles. In addition to this, their stand on the referendum has been highly negative. Thus it is not so much their stand on Taiwan but rather their divergence in their stance to China that makes these two camps different.

The election and the referendum are two issues, but it is difficult separating these two apart completely. The referendum has a very high threshold since you need eight million to make the referendum valid one. All along the mostly likely scenario to me has been one of Chen winning the election, but having the referendum fail and that is exactly what happened. In retrospect, perhaps Chen Shui-bian has benefited in mobilizing the presidential vote because the referendum. On the other hand he also sacrificed the referendum because people who support the pan-blue also chose not to cast their vote for the referendum. So it is a very twisted situation.

Even though the referendum failed and although there may not be any legal legitimacy to the results, we should not underestimate the will of the 7 million voters who did vote in the referendum. 7 million people who cast their vote in the referendum and there is thus still a strong political and social mandate out of that. No government, and for that matter, no president can take that lightly. Among these 7 million people, more than 90 percent said, "yes" on both questions of strengthening self-defense and engaging peace negotiation with China. That is something that should also bring a strong message to China.