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Views by Asian and Western analysts on current events in Asia
Politics Will Return to Asian Countries Hit by Tsunami
Kim Beng Phar
Visiting Fellow, ISIS, MALAYSIA

キムベンファー

Having slammed into the shores of 12 countries on December 26, causing tens of thousands of casualties literally within hours -- in some cases completely wiping out an entire coastal community, as is the case with Aceh, Indonesia -- the scale of destruction of the Asian tsunami is now beginning to dawn on the international community.

In days to come, it will truly be one of the world's biggest humanitarian relief operations ever conducted, at least since the end of World War II. Governments are now realizing the impact of the tsunami, albeit slowly.

The United Nations, the World Health Organization, Red Cross and hundreds of other charity organizations have sprung into action, with Islamic, Buddhist, Hindu and Christian charities working side by side.

According to Dr. Tariq Chaudhry, a senior officer at the Pakistani mission in the United Nations, Pakistan was among the first to react to the crisis, sending three warships to help with the mercy missions in Sri Lanka, Maldives and India, all of which are members of the South Asia Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC).

In Sri Lanka, where the civil war between the Sinhalese led government and the Tami Tigers have been raging for more than three decades, President Chandrika has also promised to use the development aid swiftly and fairly.

The same pledge is heard from President Bambang of Indonesian, as the Indonesian army has for years been engaged in a low intensity conflict with the people in Aceh.

In southern Thailand, Muslims who have hitherto been enraged by the repressive crackdown of Prime Minister Thaksin, have softened their stance as the nation enters 5 days of national mourning.

But will the surging sympathy and goodwill transformed the conflicts in Sri Lanka, Indonesia, India and Thailand?

Writing in The Straits Times Singapore, Dr. Ooi Kee Beng of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS), affirmed: "Closeness between the different nations can grow out of this (tragedy), since no human agency or enemy was involved in the disaster."

To which, he continued: "No blame game should be allowed to grow from this. No one caused the quake and no government can be reasonably held responsible for the fact that no tsunami-warning system for the Indian Ocean was in place. There had never been a need for one before. We must merely accept the fact that we cannot insure ourselves against all disasters."

While the above statements are morally persuasive, indeed ethically appropriate, there is every hint that the affected countries will no more learn from the tsunami anymore can their conflicts with the respective authorities be resolved as a result of it.

In Indonesia, some Acehnese are crying foul because when the tsunami struck, the Indonesian army responded to their kins and kindreds first.

Nor can the Indonesian army be blamed, as the indiscriminate enormity of the waves hit their families and bases just as evenly.

More importantly, due to the devastation of Banda Aceh in particular, Jakarta would be made responsible for its reconstruction; without which the Acehnese will once again demand more oil revenue and autonomy to run their affairs.

In Sri Lanka, the Tamil Tigers, while urging for more immediate aid and relief, have already begun accusing Colombo of doing more to save and shelter the Sinhalese--their arch enemy--first.

Amidst an ambience of national tragedy, where more than 3500 Sri Lankas have been killed, charges of ethnic prejudice have again quickly seeped into the fray.

In India, there are too many outstanding issues between Pakistan and India, most of which military and territorial in nature. While people in southern India are appreciative of the generosity of the Pakistani government and army, the bureaucrats in New Delhi, who are thousands of miles removed from the impact of the tsunami, are not necessarily heartened, for that matter, softened. To them, Pakistan is still responsible for fomenting terrorism in India, especially Kashmir. Pakistan's nuclear weapons are still aimed at India.

In southern Thailand, the intensity of the conflict is only picking up; not slowing down. The current lull, made possible by the tsunami, has not made the local elements any more respectful of the Thaksin government. Indeed, the scale of the calamity serves as a 'vindication' of their cause to dethrone the Thaksin government, as the tragedy is now widely interpreted as a 'sign' that God was punishing Thaksin and his ilks.

Thus, while Asian countries should indeed learn from the massive tragedy, the current cessation of violence is more a respect for the dead, than the expressed will of the living who continue to pull the strings on how the conflicts should be pursued in the aftermath of the tsunami.

Sadly, wars remain exclusive human endeavors. They arise from complicated ideational and material factors, to which no natural calamity could singly wipe out even with one fearsome blow.

Peace, in other words, does not come from pieces of wreckage caused by 'acts of God'. It has to be enforced and constantly supervised by various responsible agents. Thus, just as there was no 'peace dividend' from the end of the Cold War. Asia should not expect any from the tsunami too.

(December 30, 2004)
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