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Dispatches from AAN
How to deal with an ever-changing China
China with soaring population proving a mighty competitor
HIROKI NAGAMOCHI

Many Chinese reply "it's really tough" when asked about living in the world's most populous nation.

There is no doubt, though, that economic development has helped alleviate supply shortages, a crucial problem in the past. Now the country is in danger of running short of resources again, so Chinese people must continue to fiercely compete with each other to obtain wealth.

Host nation China was the most vocal participant at the Northeast Asia Economic Conference held in Changchun, Jilin province, in early September to discuss international cooperation for economic development. Participating nations included Japan, Russia, Mongolia, the Republic of Korea (South Korea)-and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) as an observer. They met to discuss creating a Northeast Asia transportation network.

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Jilin province chief Hong Hu outlined plans for roughly 560 kilometers of highway to be completed by 2004 that will connect Changchun, Russia and Hun Chun, close to China's border with North Korea. He urged participating nations to expand the route into their own borders, because it was now within reach of ports in Russia and North Korea.

"The intensifying competition between Chinese regions stemming from the weight of the national population is the catalyst behind the push by China's cities and provinces to actively seek partnerships," says Hideo Kayahara of the Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia, based in Niigata Prefecture.

Jilin province, which does not have any coastline, must rely on Dalian Port when exporting goods produced in its region.

"Cargo transport to Dalian Port is near full capacity and Jilin province has a difficult time securing transportation to the port because cities near Beijing and Liaoning province always make their reservations ahead of Jilin," says Kayahara. "They urgently need to secure a transportation network that will connect Jilin to Rajin Port in North Korea and other places."

The Dalian Port route alone can no longer sustain the volume of cargo it handles from three northern provinces, including Heilongjiang and Jilin, to export goods. That comes as no surprise. More than 100 million people live in these three provinces alone.

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China's population began to surge drastically in the 19th century. The population was already exploding when modern China was established in 1949. Luckily, socialism-often mocked as "splitting among five people the work of three" or "both lazy and efficient workers get paid the same"-helped the nation secure jobs for its mushrooming population.

The population continued to grow, with encouragement from Chairman Mao Ze-dong. Moreover, the nation's switch to a market economy may have been triggered by its population problem. China could not support itself unless it spurred competition to stimulate the economy. Contemporary Chinese now have a highly competitive spirit nurtured by the twin pressures of a huge population and a market economy. But the structure of competition may change in the near future.

China has an excess population of between 150 million to 200 million people. It is the difference between reality and an ideal population size. But these people have been left behind in the rush for economic growth. No system exists to accommodate those who lost out in the intense competition. The time has come for such a system to be reviewed.

In metropolitan areas, on the other hand, youngsters are reportedly becoming less competitive and more or less do what they want. Critics say the younger generation was spoiled by parents and grandparents who had to adhere to the "one-child" policy aimed at shrinking the population.

People and society will continue to change. The key to understanding China is to watch carefully and try to get inside the Chinese psyche. We must also have compassion for a people undergoing huge social upheaval. In this way, we can learn to deal with China.

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(IHT/Asahi: October 14, 2002)

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