I wonder how much of what is reported about North Korea's nuclear development is true. I had an opportunity to exchange opinions about the nuclear issue with a former Japanese diplomat. He said: "Without nuclear weapons, North Korea is just a poor and minor power. Other than nuclear weapons, Pyongyang has no means with which to maintain its rivalry with South Korea and to force the United States to negotiate with it. In the light of the country's economic hardships and its desire to overcome its inferiority in its military strength, I cannot imagine that it will abandon nuclear development as a diplomatic card."

I remembered the story that a senior South Korean official who was a member of the inner group of the Kim Dae Jung government, told me at the time of the administration's inauguration. He said, "Would you discard the nuclear card if you were that leader of North Korea? In Northeast Asia, only the sky over Pyongyang is not protected by a nuclear umbrella."

The two officials share the same opinion as far as the points I mentioned are concerned. But they differ with each other about following issues. The former Japanese official said that there is no prospect for a peaceful solution.

However, the Korean bureaucrat said that "we will develop a circumstance where Pyongyang can feel safe and does not have to cling to nuclear weapons. After all, that is an only way to lead North Korea to abandon its nuclear development" as he earnestly told me about what South Korea calls its Sunshine Policy.

President Kim Dae Jung has not wavered in his belief in the policy even though his five-year term is near its end.

He said at a press conference on January 24: "The world agrees that there is no other way than the Sunshine Policy to bring about a peaceful solution on the Korean Peninsula. In this regard, this policy has a vital energy. If the Pyongyang-Washington relationship goes well and the nuclear problem is solved, then the Korean Peninsula issues will enter a stage where a totally successful solution can be achieved. I would like to emphasize again that the Sunshine Policy intends to achieve unification 10 or 20 years after the two Koreas peacefully coexist, cooperate with each other and establish a relationship under which they can feel safe with each other."

Roh Moo Hyun, who advocated the continuation and further development of the Sunshine Policy, was elected as the successor of Kim Dae Jung. In an interview with The Asahi Shimbun he said that many people are dubious about Pyongyang but he believes that it would consider abandoning nuclear development if the stability of the regime and economic aid are guaranteed.

How should we deal with North Korea?

On the one hand, some people maintain hard-line opinions such as calling for pressure or sanctions on Pyongyang. However, I wonder whether such actions would make any definite progress, whatever the solution to the Korean problems may be. Such actions could even put a peaceful solution in jeopardy. In this regard, the Sunshine Policy is more convincing than the hard-line measures as it provides a long-term perspective toward a peaceful solution.

Until now, the Japanese government has maintained that it supports the Sunshine Policy. Along this line, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi visited North Korea and signed the Pyongyang Declaration last fall. However, later the negotiations between the two countries deadlocked.

What is now important is that the abduction and nuclear development problems should be solved through a long-term policy that is associated with the Sunshine Policy. To achieve this objective, Japan should try to reopen negotiations with Pyongyang by utilizing all possible communication channels.