SATOSHI AMAKO, 59, is professor of contemporary Chinese affairs and Asian political history at Waseda University and a member of the Asahi Shimbun Asia Network. He is a former president of the Japan Association for Asian Studies.

It has been a long time since there was a lively discussion about the prospects for international society in the 21st century. One of the controversial points concerns a possible transition of power consistent with changes in the overall strength of nations. For example, how long will the hegemony of the United States last? Will a nation appear to take America's place?

A think tank in the United States predicted that in 2020 China would emerge as the nation with the largest gross domestic product (GDP), followed by the U.S., India and Japan. China has been achieving phenomenal economic growth, with its GDP last year reaching about $2.6 trillion, up 10.7 percent over the previous year. The country's GDP surpassed the $1 trillion level for the first time in 2000, but the scale of its economy then was only a little over one fifth that of Japan's. Only six years later, China's GDP growth is still gathering momentum and its economy is nearly half that of Japan's.

As the Beijing Olympics will be held next year and the World Expo is scheduled for Shanghai in 2010, the prediction that China will move ahead of Japan in GDP in around 2015 sounds realistic. According to a recent report from Britain's International Institute for Strategic Studies, an authoritative research organization, China's total military expenditure in 2006, including the military budget and related expenses not included in the budget such as costs for military research & development and purchase of weapons, when converted into purchasing power parity, came to $122 billion. This figure is about three times as big as Japan's defense costs plus it makes China the second largest military power in the world after the United States.

Another point of discussion in looking at the 21st century concerns whether or not the framework for regional cooperation that is issuing forth in various parts of the world much like that of the European Union (EU) will continue to make progress in the future, and develop into the framework of a system for comprehensive cooperation, coexistence and stability. The focus of attention now is the proposed formation of an East Asia community, and here again, the focal point is how the Chinese presence should be perceived and how a community well balanced on an equal footing without "Chinese hegemony" should be conceived.

The preceding administration of Junichiro Koizumi tried to handle an emerging China with an "unqualified pro-American strategy" rather than strengthening dialogue with China and ties with other Asian nations. However, this only resulted in the extreme downgrade of Japan's diplomatic presence and produced no effect in controlling the expansion of China.

How, then, should the question be considered? The problem at the root of the matter, in my view, is how we recognize our aging society with a declining birthrate for which a high economic growth rate can no longer be expected, and how we think out ways to enliven our own society.

There can no longer be a revival of the "economic animal." If so, is there no other way for Japan but to degrade itself to a second- or third-class nation?

I do not proffer such an idea. Japan is blessed with a rich natural environment that is pleasant to live in, and it also has well-developed social infrastructures. If we make further efforts to develop highly sophisticated technologies and build a well-balanced society, we will be able to have strong soft power capabilities that will help us influence and lead other nations in Asia and the world.

The development of human resources is essential in bolstering soft power in a wide range of fields, and this appears to be the only choice for Japan to resurrect itself. It is also an area in which China cannot overtake Japan so easily because, while showing a phenomenal economic growth, it has grave internal contradictions, and lacks social infrastructure and basic necessities for human resources development. If Japan makes use of its advantageous points, it will be possible for the two countries to be complementary to each other. This may sound a little like self-admiration, but the university I serve is already beginning to launch in full swing such a human resources development program in tie-ups with major Asian counterparts.

Another prerequisite for Japan to lead the world with its soft power is to develop itself as a nation that can receive respect from other countries, particularly those in Asia. To this end, it is essential for Japan (1) to refine its pacifism and democracy (to honor and display the spirit of the Constitution will help attract other nations) , (2) to try aggressively to solve various problems beyond national boundaries and receive appreciation as a true international contributor not pursuant to its national interests, and (3) to display its creative wisdom fully to solve "confrontation and dispute" problems with neighboring countries over such issues as territorial land and sea disagreements, recognition of history and official visits to Yasukuni Shrine so that it can build up model cases of international harmony, cooperation and coexistence.

Of course, these may not be easy to realize. However, only through these efforts will Japan be able to establish a relationship of trust with neighboring nations, develop itself as a respectable and reliable nation and become an intellectual leader that can effectively display its soft power.