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Latest articles by AAN researchers Show Japan's Vision to the World NowBy Ryosei Kokubun, Dean, Faculty of Law, Keio University 2008/02/15
A gloomy view about Japan's future is growing as the country's presence in the world seems to be shrinking rapidly. Yet, I would say that now is the time for Japan to once again boost its presence in the world, when we take into consideration various political circumstances in the Asia-Pacific rim that have occurred since last year. New political phases are currently emerging in every corner of this region. Here is an overview of the region's current political circumstances. In South Korea, newly elected conservative Lee Myung Bak is scheduled to replace President Roh Moo Hyun in February. President Roh Moo Hyun claimed himself as a liberal politician for average Koreans, yet voters eventually turned their back on his administration. He has had frequent disagreements with the United States and Japan. But his successor will likely have better communication with his counterparts in those two countries. China is scheduled to reelect President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao at the National People's Congress in March. China faces mounting problems, including the issues of environment and growing income gap between the poor and the rich. Yet China will undoubtedly place its national prestige on successfully holding the 2008 Olympics Games in Beijing this summer. In Taiwan, a presidential election is scheduled in March when President Chen Shui-bian's term comes to an end. The Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) presidential candidate is Frank Chang-ting Hsieh, and his rival is Ma Ying-jeou of the Kuomintang Party (Nationalist Party), who is known for his reconciliatory stance toward China. Ma reportedly has the upper hand over Hsieh. Yet, the DPP candidate is not a hawk against China as well. The major issue, however, is the outcome of a planned referendum over a bid to join the United Nations under the name of Taiwan. The referendum, scheduled to be held at the same time as the presidential election, could trigger more political tension between China and Taiwan. In Thailand, the People Power Party, which is pro-former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in a coup in September 2006, won the general election recently. Yet Thailand's political climate is unclear, including the issue of whether the ousted former prime minister can make a return to the country's political stage. In Australia, the conservative Liberal Party led by John Howard, who had governed the nation for 11 years, was defeated by the Labor Party in the recent general election and Kevin Rudd of the opposition party assumed the premiership. The new prime minister is unlikely to change the country's current policy toward the United States, yet Rudd has close contact with China as far as his political career is concerned. The U.S. presidential election will be held in November this year. The nomination battle in both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party is heating up all over the country. Meantime, President George W. Bush's presence has been dwindling. There is a view that, against such a political background, Bush might try to hurry up in solving the problems with North Korea. Observing the Asia Pacific rim as we just did clearly shows how the political outlook of the region will be shaped this year. New leaders have debuted or are in the process of making their debuts in the political stage in many countries. To be sure, the emergence of new leaders in this region creates a difficult situation for Asia-Pacific rim countries as they have to restart from scratch in dealing with various issues. Yet, I would dare say, now is a great chance for us to create new international relations in the world. Numerous global problems have rapidly emerged, including terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, environmental problems, energy, poverty and financial issues. Political leaders around the world must swiftly tackle these global issues now. They will not be allowed to devote themselves only to domestic problems. Japan should not miss this great opportunity. What should we do now? Here are my policy recommendations that Japan should take the initiative in dealing with, especially in the realm of foreign affairs. First, Japan should make a serious effort to establish a clear stance over global environmental issues so as to be well prepared for the upcoming 2008 G8 Summit to be held in July at Lake Toya in Hokkaido. During the December meeting of the U.N. Climate Change Conference held at Bali, Indonesia, what Japan had demanded apparently infringed the spirit of the Kyoto Protocol. These actions had hurt the credibility of Japan among other countries. Japan's economic strength has been dwindling. So, there is no other issue than a global environmental problem for Japan to be able to address confidently at the global stage. Japan needs resolution, preparedness and serious efforts to find a way to be an advanced nation in the environmental issues, thereby leading other countries in Asia. Secondly, I recommend that ODA (Official Development Assistance) programs be reinvigorated. Many developed countries and even China and South Korea are boosting their assistance for foreign countries, while only Japan has been cutting back on its ODA programs. Japan has lost its huge presence as a big ODA donor in the international arena, which the country once enjoyed. It is making a reduction in ODA programs to other countries, following the end of the ODA program for China. I wonder whether this is the right policy. Poverty and environmental problems have been spreading over the globe. Japan is still the second largest economic power following the United States. To be sure, Japan, which has long been suffering from economic woes, can no longer afford to offer official assistance simply because of the country's goodwill. Rather, Japan should also regard ODA programs as a good opportunity to exploit new business chances and to earn profits. Otherwise, the Japanese government will not be able to secure the public's support. Third, there is the question of how to conduct Japan's diplomacy toward its Asian neighbors. Conflict with its Asian neighbors over historical issues has undermined Japan's diplomatic front, which had been strengthened since the end of World War II. Yet, Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda visited China last year, and President Hu is scheduled to come to Japan this spring. Moreover, summit talks will be held between Fukuda and South Korea's new president. These efforts at summit diplomacy have been expanding the horizon of stabilizing the relationship between Tokyo and its Asian neighbors. Now Japan needs to come up with initiatives and efforts for institutionalization that will result in the strengthening of the fragile relationship between Japan and Asian countries. I think one of the key factors in particular is the creation of mutual trust and communications among the younger generations. * * * From now on Japan will no longer be able to enjoy the dominant position that it had once had in Asia. Yet at the same time, without doubt, Japan does have the upper hand when it comes to environmental issues, technology, security and culture among others. The largest barrier for us is our psychological tendency; that is to say, we Japanese tend to pay more attention to our introverted domestic issues. Japan should show its clear vision to the world now, making utmost use of its resources and attractive assets, and should translate this vision into action immediately. (Originally carried by The Asahi Shimbun on January 14, 2008)
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