Disaster: First part of two parts series - Watch out Japan, a big quake is coming!

Stretching about 3,000 kilometers from Hokkaido in the northern subarctic zone to Okinawa in a subtropical region, Japan is rich in natural beauty and a great culture. It is not so widely known, however, that the fortunate archipelago has another face: it is also one of the most ill-fated countries in the world that is rich in natural disasters, in particular earthquakes.

According to scientific findings since the 1960s, this small archipelago is located right on the collision spot of four huge geological plates: the Pacific plate, the Philippine plate, the Eurasia plate and the North American plate. While the western half of the Japanese archipelago is on the Eurasia plate and the northern half on the North American plate, the two other oceanic plates, the Pacific plate and the Philippine plate, are very slowly colliding against the former two plates and then sinking under the Japanese archipelago, creating huge distortions and cracks all around the country. When massive distorted rocks abruptly move and release accumulated energy, an earthquake roughly rocks the country, scientists say.

Scientists say that Japan has nearly 2,000 active faults and a total of 108 active volcanoes. Almost every day people in Japan feel low-intensity tremors caused by a number of active and unidentified faults lying across the nation.

If a distorted plate edge bounces back, it will very likely incur a huge earthquake and a tsunami causing massive damage to the country. In the past, Japan has experienced a number of big earthquakes. In 1923, for example, the 7.9 Richter scale temblor that was the peak reading of the Great Kanto Earthquake clobbered Tokyo and its neighboring areas. This quake was caused by a rebound of the Eurasia plate edge, which was distorted by the Philippine plate. More than 100,000 people were killed while more than a million survivors lost their homes. Tears of sadness from this disaster still have not been dried off.

Seventy two years later, Japan had another powerful quake. The Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake, or Kobe earthquake, was created by an active fault lying under the Kobe area. With a 7.3 magnitude Richter scale jolt, the Kobe earthquake killed 6,437 people and caused more than a ten trillion yen economic loss. The Guinness Book of Records put this destructive earthquake as the costliest natural disaster to strike in any one country.

Natural tragedies are endless in Japan. Recently there have been some predictions saying that the world’s second largest economy will very likely be hit by more large-scale earthquakes within the next 30 years.

A Tokyo inland earthquake is among the more serious predictions. The Japanese government says that an active fault below Tokyo will cause a big earthquake with a magnitude of 7 within 30 years, the probability rate of which is said to be 70 percent. While this upcoming Tokyo inland earthquake is not as strong as the trench-type quake like the Great Kanto earthquake, it will still deliver a massive destructive blow because it will be happening very close to the city center.

If the inland earthquake strikes with the epicenter in the northern part of Tokyo Bay, the death toll could reach 11,000. The total of collapsing buildings will probably be up to 85,000 and the maximum of the economic loss could break the record of the Kobe earthquake, reaching 112 trillion yen, the Central Disaster Management Council, an arm of the national cabinet office, says.

Although it is still hard to predict when or where it will happen, once it strikes, the devastation of Tokyo, the home of 12.79 million people and one of the world’s great mega-cities, will have great impact throughout the nation and around the globe.

Furthermore, another nest of quakes lies along the Pacific side of the beautiful archipelago. And these types are normally much bigger than inland active fault-related quakes. The predicted Tokai (East Sea) earthquake, for instance, has been highlighted as one of most likely earthquakes that can bring much devastation to widespread areas, including Tokyo.

Then there is the geological vulnerability of the Philippine plate, which is located below Shizuoka Prefecture; it slides under the Eurasia plate, dragging the Eurasia plate down with it. Seismologists believe that if this tension reaches its limit, then the Eurasia Plate will bounce back and create a huge earthquake, which could be the Tokai earthquake.

Observation from the past shows that big earthquakes reoccur every 100 to 150 years as a cycle in this area. The most recent big earthquake in the Tokai area occurred in 1854, and since then no major quake has hit this area. Hiromichi Tsuji, a professor of the Earthquake Research Institute at the University of Tokyo, says that seismologists have been focusing on the Tokai area because they believe there is a very high possibility that this area will have an earthquake with a powerful intensity in the near future.

Besides, fears of recurrences within three decades of the Tonankai (east-south sea) and Nankai (south sea) earthquakes have increasingly surfaced among seismologists here. These areas, which are located southwest of the Tokai area, have had massive trench-type quakes with a magnitude of 8 or greater at intervals of 100 to 150 years. The last big earthquakes in this area were the Tonankai earthquake in 1944 and the Nankai earthquake in 1946. And what is worrisome is that such trench-type earthquakes have a big chance of happening again within 30 years, they say.

Jun Tobita, a professor of the Graduate School of Environmental Studies at Nagoya University, said that seismologists cannot exactly foretell how big the next earthquake will be. History indicates there are three types: the Tokai earthquake only; a simultaneous combination of the Tokai earthquake and the Tonankai earthquake; or those three big earthquakes striking at the same time, a worst case scenario that is almost equal to the powerful Sumatra off-shore quake in 2004.

“At Nagoya University, we decided to focus on the presumption that the Tokai earthquake and Tonankai earthquake will occur at the same time, since such a temblor may cause the most serious type of damage to the city,” said Tobita. This type of earthquake can have terrific power, as much as magnitude 8 to 8.2, and the possibility of such a figure is 60-70% in the next 30 years.

The Earthquake and Disaster-Reduction Research Division of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology estimates the damages of a Tokai, Tonankai and Nankai earthquake could total up to 21,000 casualties and an 81 trillion yen economic loss. Meanwhile, the government of Japan predicts that a Tokai earthquake might result in around 7,900-9,200 deaths with an economic loss of 37 trillion yen.

The above-mentioned predictions are just a tip of the disasters Japan is facing. What certainly can be said, scientists believe, is that big quakes will continue to hit this island country, even though it is still hard to tell when and how strong they will be. Their actual impact on modern cities with high rises, underground facilities and highways like those in Tokyo and Osaka cannot be predicted yet.

Then, what do the Japanese people think can be done before big earthquakes destroy their peaceful everyday lives? Prevention is always better than the cure. In the second part of this series, let us take a look at Japan’s efforts to reduce and deal with the damages that might be caused by the anticipated upcoming quakes.