Disaster:　Second half of two-story series - Doing something is better than nothing

How many days are left for the Japanese people to get ready for catastrophes that are very likely to be triggered by the upcoming powerful earthquakes? Only the gods know. It is still far beyond human capability to predict when earthquakes will hit, scholars and government officials in charge of such calamities say.

“So the key is to raise people’s awareness and encourage them to do whatever they can do in the event of such a disaster,” says Jun Tobita, associate professor of earthquake engineering at Nagoya University.

“Many people still do not take earthquakes seriously. Even if they know their houses cannot withstand big tremors, they still lead their lives as usual without doing anything to prepare for such a disaster,” said Tobita.

Researchers at Nagoya University, a leading regional research center in central Japan, have been focusing their efforts to motivate local people to imagine what damages giant earthquakes might possibly bring about. The Nagoya area is expected to suffer much damage if a powerful Tokai earthquake or a much bigger combination of both Tokai and Tonakai earthquakes should occur in the near future.

Tobita's disaster mitigation office in the graduate school of environmental studies is filled with many kinds of handmade-like test devices that re-create impacts of quakes on houses and buildings, allowing people to get an idea what quakes might feel like and do.

"The last big earthquake to hit here, the powerful Tonakai quake, struck in 1944, more than 60 years ago, so only a few people here can recall its impact and what it did," says Tobita. “What we are trying to do is to collect the records of the 1944 earthquake in this area and to ask some survivors to share their experiences with younger generations. If this project is successful, then the younger people living there will be able to imagine how much suffering they might face if a big earthquake hits the city.”

In addition to holding disaster drills on the campus, Tobita and his colleagues are often making informative campaign tours in the region to warn local residents about the dangers of earthquakes. They also meet with people, children, NGOs, local government officials and mass media representatives in a bid to forge a collaborative network among the local population, Tobita says.

“Edutainment (education plus entertainment) and a sense of reality are the key words of the disaster warning program,” he says. “Instead of sitting and listening to boring lectures, the activities they took part in were a lot more fun. At the same time, it also stimulates people to take earthquakes more seriously.”

Paper-made models of wooden houses are one of the more popular items that are used to show how risky houses might collapse in a strong tremor. Using traditional construction designs, which usually don't take earthquakes into consideration, it is shown how these dummy houses can easily collapse if hit by a big earthquake. But if the house owners would reinforce the framework of their homes, then such structures could survive strong ground movements or suffer only minor damage at most. While the attendees of these events enjoy playing with these educational materials, they unknowingly start thinking of their own houses: “Will my house survive the big one?”

The university also moves forward to work closer with children. With “edutainment” programs, children can enjoy the sessions and also learn more about taking steps to prepare for and survive forthcoming earthquakes.

“At present, children may seem too young to understand earthquake preparedness. Nevertheless, if a large-scale earthquake should hit in the next 30 to 40 years, they will become a very important group in dealing with this,” said Tobita.

In Tokyo, where it is feared that a big inland quake would devastate the core functions of the world's No. 2 economic power, the University of Tokyo and other leading universities recently launched a new project to search for signs of such a huge quake. The project is aimed at watching the movements of the Philippine plate which lies beneath the Tokyo Metropolitan area and is expected to trigger a massive rock movement in the Tokyo region.

“In the project, we plan to install a total of 400 earthquake sensor devices 15 to 20 meters deep underground around the metropolitan area during the fiscal years between 2007 and 2010,” Hiromichi Tsuji, associate professor of the Earthquake Research Institute, the University of Tokyo, said.

When a quake occurs, many sensors close to the epicenter will show precise data about the tremor. “At present, however, this device network is only expected to help seismologists collect the data about the underground tremors. There is still a long way to go before this system will be improved enough to help form an earthquake early warning system,” Tsuji said.

“To our regret, we have to admit that a disaster will likely take place any time, any place. That’s all we know at present,” said Eiji Torisu, a director for disaster preparedness of the public relations and international cooperation at the Government of Japan's cabinet office. “The people should not rely only on the government for full assistance if a big quake should hit. In fact, they need to be self-reliant for at least the first 72 hours, or three days, after the quake strikes,” Torisu said.

In the big earthquake that destroyed downtown Kobe in 1995, mountains of rubble from collapsed buildings and houses covered the area and huge fires ravaged transportation routes, thus hindering the arrival of rescue teams.

“When a big earthquake strikes, there will be many areas suffering from severe damages. The central government will probably not be able to give sufficient emergency aid to all areas. Initially people will need to help themselves as much as possible before receiving help from the government,” Torisu said.

A well-prepared population will certainly help to reduce the burden of the disaster management teams. A balance of self-help and public help is the best way to bring order to a disaster relief situation. Good collaboration among the local residents, the central government, local agencies, experts and media, he believes, can make earthquake relief efforts most efficient.

In an effort to inform the people about earthquakes, many local governments have recently issued hazard maps that indicate areas with a high risk of being seriously damaged by a powerful earthquake. These maps are designed to help people to check whether or not they are located in a risky area and to help prepare themselves in case a big earthquake should strike.

Last October, the central government also started installing an earthquake early warning system in hopes of informing people before strong tremors reach their areas. However, this system still has some limitations, such as, the area close to the epicenter may be warned at the same time that the tremors arrive or differences in the warning alarms in each area can confuse the people.

“The warning system still has some problems that must be taken care of. However, it is just one of the problems in the earthquake warning system. People cannot fully rely on it. The most important problem now is to focus on how people should react after they receive the warning alert,” Torisu says.

Because of worries about powerful earthquakes hitting soon, the Japanese government in 2005 introduced an amendment to the act governing the promotion of earthquake-proof retrofit buildings that aims to encourage the residents to reinforce their own houses, especially wooden houses built before 1981, to withstand a powerful tremor.

A quarterly review published in 2006 by the National Institute of Science and Technology Policy points out that there are approximately 47 million households in Japan. Of these, 17.5 million were built before 1982 and an estimated 11.5 million are considered fragile in the face of big earthquakes.

Recently, the government joined hands with local governments to give financial support to reduce the burden of residents who are preparing for earthquakes. Detached houses, for example, will get a subsidy covering about 67% of the inspection cost and 15% for the reinforcement work. However, this kind of program is still insufficiently utilized.

"There are several funds supported by both the central government and local governments, but the cost of adding earthquake resistance costs for an aging house is still too high, on average 2 million yen for each wooden house," said Tobita of Nagoya University. Apart from that, the difficulty of carrying out a normal life during reinforcement work also frustrates the residents, causing them to give up easily.

It cannot be denied that the government and earthquake experts are devoting their energy to creating feasible ways to cope with upcoming big earthquakes. Yet, all these efforts will become fruitless if the people, who will be the direct victims, are still living their everyday lives without thinking seriously about the creeping devastation that lies ahead.

It may be safe to say that earthquakes and disasters have already been a part of the Japanese’s everyday life and they are quite indifferent and inactive toward the prediction of the big quake coming up, some observer here say. Instead of responding to it, they just stop thinking about it and carry out their lives as usual. What will happen will happen, they often say. The awe and obedience toward overwhelming natural power is deeply embedded in society, they say.