Tensions from the Cold War era still linger in Northeast Asia. Nobody can deny the possibility that these tensions could escalate into an armed conflict, since the region has no comprehensive security framework to mitigate them and prevent an outbreak of hostilities.

　Nations of Northeast Asia, including those that are in conflict themselves, need to form a cooperative security framework. Participating members should include the United States, which has influence in the region, and China, Russia, Japan, the Republic of Korea (South Korea), the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) and so forth.

　To determine how such a regime could be brought about, it is necessary to examine the relationships among those six nations in terms of regional security.

　To compensate for the absence of a collective self-defense structure like NATO in post-World War II Northeast Asia, the United States formed a string of bilateral alliances with Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines and Thailand.

　After the U.S. military withdrew in stages from Southeast Asia, Japan and South Korea became the front-line allies of the United States in Asia. The Japan-U.S. Security Treaty was re-evaluated and reinforced as the key to regional security. The United States and China have maintained a relationship of mutual strategic commitment since the end of the Cold War, while the United States and Russia continue their dialogue as democratic market economies.

　Where North Korea is concerned, there have been four-party peace talks (involving the two Koreas, China and the United States), as well as talks between North Korea and the United States, but none of these can be said to provide any stable security system. Although relations between North Korea and China are improving, North Korea's ties with Russia are no longer as firm as they used to be.

　To promote multilateral security talks in a region such as Northeast Asia, it is absolutely vital to make full use of the existing bilateral relations. Even though the United States is the world's only superpower today, it does not have the power to deal with all situations in Northeast Asia just on the strength of its alliances dating from the Cold War era.

　The 1998 U.S. report "Security Strategy for the East Asia-Pacific Region'' mentioned the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Regional Forum (ARF) as a useful vehicle for talks on conflict prevention. To deal with diversifying threats to peace, it is necessary to add new layers to the regional security structure through not only bilateral dialogues but multilateral talks as well. This is becoming a shared understanding among the nations of Northeast Asia.

　Created after the end of the Cold War, ARF has made good progress in a short time with respect to cooperative security. Where Northeast Asia's security structure is concerned, it would be desirable to let a consultative body, made up of the region's main nations, set up an authorized institution for conflict prevention.

　But until all vestiges of the Cold War are eliminated from the region, it is more realistic to keep the existing bilateral security alliances−such as those between Japan and the United States, and South Korea and the United States―to support the cooperative security framework from multiple angles.

　If the two Koreas become reconciled, that would be a big step toward the creation of the cooperative security framework. By taking advantage of the relationships of dialogue that North Korea already has with China and Russia, it will become possible to start six-party talks on peace for the entire region, which is a shared concern for all.

　And if this process works, then it should be possible to eventually include other nations, such as Mongolia and Canada.

　Talks should start with matters that are easier to agree on, such as military exchanges and inspection of one another's military exercises, disclosure of defense white papers, and the establishment of hotline networks among the leaders of the nations involved. As mutual trust grows, discussions can then be broadened and deepened to address the issue of creating some conflict prevention system.

　And if any accord is reached not only by regular ministerial meetings but by so-called Track 2 consultative meetings as well, such an accord could be made official during a summit meeting and duly announced.

　For North Korea, joining a security framework formed by the United States, China, Japan and so on would be a shortcut to gaining the trust and understanding of the global community. Japan's responsibility is to make sure North Korea does not drive itself any farther into isolation.

　To achieve that, Japan must create an atmosphere that will make North Korea feel welcome as an equal partner by keeping pace with the U.S. policy of expanding the scope of relations.

Track 2 dialogue

　Track 2 is a method of dialogue that has become popular in Asia since the end of the Cold War. Track 1 refers to governmental talks, and Track 2 refers to dialogue that is part official(government)and part nongovernmental in nature.

　Along with academics, Cabinet ministers, diplomats and military officers can participate in their private capacities in Track 2 dialogue.

　This form of dialogue is useful and convenient for eliciting honest opinions from participants representing nations with different political systems.