A smaller population should use fewer resources, easing the burden. But that's not happening.

`The only natural thing to do is to decide whether nuclear power generation is worth the costs.' POWER COMPANY WORKER

This is the third of a series examining how Japan's declining population will affect society.

For a resource-poor nation that until recently projected growing demand for power, the nuclear route seemed the only way to go. This may no longer be the case. Hard hit by falling demand for electricity and rising costs of operating nuclear power plants, power companies have come to view this form of energy as too heavy a burden. In addition, recent scandals involving power companies hiding faults with nuclear reactors have made the public wary of nuclear power generation.

One alternative energy source that is quickly gaining steam is wind power.

In fiscal 1999, only 83,000 kilowatts were generated through wind power. That surged to 463,000 kW by the end of fiscal 2002. Still, all the energy produced by wind power is nowhere near what is produced by a single nuclear power reactor.

Instability is the bugbear of wind power. Unreliable generation also leads to instability in the voltage carried in the power lines.

High costs are involved in building power lines that can accommodate wind-generated power. For instance, a special device is required to ensure that voltage doesn't plummet when the windmill is not generating power-the device costs nearly 500 million yen. Grids also need to be upgraded to allow for an increase in wind-generated power, at a cost of about 500 billion yen.

Although the government plans to increase the percentage of recyclable energy such as wind or hydraulic power in the total electricity supply, there is no real answer as to who should pay for the wind power grids. This is delaying the advance of wind power generation. The government's initial goal was to increase the ratio of recyclable power to the primary energy supply from 4.8 percent in fiscal 2000 to 7 percent by fiscal 2010. But this cannot be attained unless the cost issue is resolved, experts say.

Europe is the forerunner in wind power generation. Development started after the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident, whose fallouts had far-reaching effects.

As of the end of 2002, Germany, which once prioritized nuclear power generation, had wind power facilities capable of generating 10.9 million kW, nearly 40 percent of the world's total. Since 1991, the German government has obligated utility companies to purchase electricity generated by wind power. Around three-fourths of wind-power giants are in Europe, including Spain, which alone has 14 percent of the world's wind power generation capacity.

The European Union has plans to raise the ratio of recyclable energy among the primary energy supply to 12 percent by 2010.

Japan doesn't even have a policy to promote wind power, say experts.

Toshio Hori, chairman of Eurus Energy Holdings Corp., the country's biggest wind power business, said: ``Many people think that they would buy energy generated through eco-friendly means even if it is a little more costly. But (Japan has) no policy to take advantage of such ideas.''

Meanwhile, the future of nuclear power is bleak because of accidents and protests from activists and residents living near nuclear power plants. There is also less justification for relying on nuclear power as demand for power eases off.

The 10 utility companies estimate that power sales will rise 1.3 percent yearly until fiscal 2012. But consumption has fallen below projections due to the slow economy and energy-saving efforts.

Back in 1993, all the power companies, excluding the one in Okinawa, projected 873.8 billion kWh in sales for fiscal 2002. The actual total was only 841.5 billion kWh that year.

Still, Japan carries on building facilities based on projections made years ago.

Symbolizing this is construction of a facility to extract plutonium from spent nuclear fuel-the initial plan was to have it up and running by 2006. It was to be a facility in a nuclear recycling plant in Rokkasho, Aomori Prefecture, key to a plan to recycle spent nuclear waste into plutonium for use as reactor fuel.

But the prototype Monju fast-breeder reactor was shut down following a sodium leak in 1995. After that accident, the government turned to a plutonium-thermal project that makes use of mixed oxide fuel (MOX) from reprocessed plutonium for use in regular nuclear reactors.

Now the MOX project is also stalled, having met strong opposition from people living near nuclear power plants. They were up in arms following a string of scandals involving Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TEPCO), which was found to have been hiding cracks and other troubles at its nuclear reactors.

The Federation of Electric Power Companies has estimated that about 19 trillion yen will be needed if the nation's nuclear power projects are to continue under the government's nuclear fuel recycling program. A tug of war to decide who should shoulder the huge costs has only just begun between the state and power companies.

``The only natural thing to do is to decide whether nuclear power generation is worth the costs,'' said a power company worker.

The country's declining population should provide an opportunity for decreasing consumption of valuable natural resources and lessen the burden on the environment. But that does not seem to have happened in Japan, based on the example of nuclear power generation, with its continued high costs and uncertain output. Meanwhile, the nation is slow to adopt wind power generation because of the high initial costs involved, even though doing so would lessen the burden on Japan in the future.

The World Wildlife Fund reported in 2002 that Japan's ecological ``footprint''-how much of the surface of the Earth is needed to produce the food and material for a nation's population-was 4.77 hectares per person in 1999. This compares with 4.71 hectares for Germany.

In Japan, the ecological footprint was 4.68 hectares in 1996. That means that the index is rising slightly, even as the country's population continues to decline.

How well a nation uses its limited resources will determine whether it can create a sustainable economy.(IHT/Asahi: December 29,2003) (12/29)