A major earthquake in Tokyo could kill 13,000 people, destroy more than 800,000 buildings and leave as many as 6.5 million commuters stranded, a new study shows.

That's a worst-case scenario, according to a government council working group. Sources revealed some of the details ahead of a fuller report to be released after the Central Disaster Management Council panel meets today.

A more comprehensive report on economic losses incurred by quake damage to roads and railway lines, and effects on lifelines such as electricity and gas, will be issued early next year.

It is the first time the government has forecast damage for a major earthquake with its epicenter in Tokyo.

After the report is issued, officials will revise earthquake guidelines that were established in 1992 to enhance emergency evacuation and disaster-preparedness measures in southern Kanto.

The council made its worst-case projections based on damage from an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.9 on the Richter scale that would strike 10 central landmarks such as the Tokyo's Haneda airport.

Data taken into account included: population, past earthquake damage, building structures and the strength of soil foundation.

The council group has been studying simulation cases with 18 possible epicenters. The three most devastating epicenters would be: a 6.9-magnitude quake hitting western Tokyo; a 7.3-magnitude quake at the plate boundaries under northern Tokyo Bay; and any big direct hit in the central Kasumigaseki district of Tokyo.

The damage would be especially extensive if the quake struck during rush hour or during a time of fire-spreading blustery winds of 54 kph-comparable to the Great Kanto Earthquake.

The hypothetical ``western Tokyo'' earthquake would cause the highest number of deaths at 13,000.

The ``northern Tokyo Bay'' earthquake would destroy the most buildings. As many as 800,000 homes and other structures would be toppled or destroyed.

Tokyo's neighborhoods with a high concentration of old wooden homes would become a fire magnet, causing many deaths.

More buildings are expected to go up in flames rather than fall down because of the actual shocks.

The number of commuters who would be unable to return home is predicted to be highest if a quake struck during the daytime.

It was estimated there would be as many as 6.5 million commuters stranded in Tokyo and its three neighboring prefectures.

The council working group will continue its research with damage forecasts on lifelines, and it will also study the effects of seismic waves on medium-sized or high-rise buildings and petroleum complexes.

Damage to large commercial facilities, underground malls and transportation stations will also be studied.

The final report will encompass the local and global economic impact of a major earthquake hitting the Tokyo area.

Previous studies have said there is a 70-percent possibility of an earthquake with a magnitude of between 6.7 and 7.2 hitting the southern Kanto area within 30 years.(IHT/Asahi: December 15,2004)