Japan's space development industry is counting on a revamped H-2A rocket series to restore its reputation.

`We're afraid Japan's space program could be scrapped if we fail again.'MASAKAZU IGUCHI Space Activities Commission chairman

Japan's credibility as a player in the global space race faces a crucial test next month with the planned launch of the next generation H-2A rocket, a design line that has been plagued by problems.

The nation's space program was grounded in November 2003 when an H-2A No. 6 rocket malfunctioned and prevented the booster from detaching 11 minutes after liftoff from the Tanegashima Space Center in Kagoshima Prefecture. The rocket blew up on command from the ground. The failure was blamed on a design defect.

Combustion experiments on the revamped rocket began in September. After a third test Jan. 12, the government's space commission gave the green light for a full launch.

Also anxious for a successful liftoff is the Japan Meteorological Agency, which has been forced to use an aging U.S. weather satellite after the Multifunctional Transport Satellite (MTSAT) was lost in an H2 rocket failure in November 1999.

A new MTSAT is to be carried into orbit by H-2A No. 7 on Feb. 24.

``I think our credibility (for rocket development) has improved a great deal,'' said Tomihisa Nakamura, a researcher at Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), after the third combustion experiment at the space center.

The November 2003 failure didn't just destroy the space agency's credibility, noted a senior official of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. It also blew away about 63 billion yen-the development and launch costs of the H-2A rocket, plus two intelligence-gathering satellites.

The spy satellite program was proposed soon after North Korea lobbed a Taepodong missile over Japan in 1998. The missile landed in the Pacific Ocean.

Initially, four spy satellites were to be sent aloft, enabling Japan to capture daily photographs. But only two are now operating, allowing snapshots just once every two days.

The satellites are expected to last about five years, meaning time is running out to replace them.

Late last year, JAXA decided to entrust this summer's launch of a national satellite to an overseas group-for the first time.. The satellite was initially supposed to be blasted into orbit by an H-2A rocket.

JAXA also has had to weather budget cuts. Its spending for fiscal 2005 was slashed to 177 billion yen, about 20 percent less than its fiscal 1999 peak.

On Jan. 7, the main body of the H-2A No. 7, to be launched next month, was moved to the Tanegashima Space Center. After the last failure, 786 design and manufacturing points were checked, and 77 improvements had to be made.

Still, the developers note, even commercial rockets in the United States and Europe did not have high success rates in their early stages of up to the first 20 launches.

The U.S. Titan No. 3 had a success rate of 75 percent, while Europe's Ariane No. 5 rocket had an 85 percent rate.

Japan's H-2 and H-2A may appear accident-prone, but their combined success rate for the first 13 launches is actually about 77 percent.

``We want a successful launch, whatever it takes,'' said Masakazu Iguchi, chairman of the government's Space Activities Commission. ``We want to see at least 10 more successful launches, to get the rocket program back on track. We're afraid Japan's space program could be scrapped if we fail again.''

Japan Meteorological Agency officials say the new MTSAT blasting into orbit next month will be useful in forecasting the start, end and movement of the rainy season in early summer.

After the first MTSAT was lost in November 1999, the agency has had to make do with old observation satellites.

The agency's Himawari No. 5 geostationary meteorological satellite was initially set to go out of operation in March 2000. But in the absence of a replacement, it was used for three more years.

To save fuel and prolong its operation, Himawari could only make limited moves, which left it unable to monitor weather farther south than New Zealand.

Since May 2003, when the Himawari ended its eight-year mission, the Meteorological Agency has leased the U.S. weather satellite GOES No. 9. But GOES No. 9 is almost as old as the Himawari No. 5.

It provided blurred images, and often failed to send data in the beginning. At least once or twice a month, images from GOES sent hourly sometimes contain white lines, indicating missing data.

In the worst cases, the white line has covered a path about 50 kilometers wide from north to south, rendering the image useless for weather forecasting.

``We've been lucky such problems haven't cropped up during weather disasters,'' said a Meteorological Agency official. That's what meteorologists feared during last year's torrential rains and record-high number of typhoons hitting Japan.

Had GOES No. 9 not been available, the only alternative is meteorological radar. But radar scans only cover a radius of about 200 to 300 kilometers, so rain fronts and typhoons beyond that limit would not be observed.

The accuracy of the new MTSAT will offer much better views of cloud cover at night. But should the launch fail again, weather forecasters must fall back on the U.S. satellite, which started operating in 1995-the same year that the retired Himawari did.

GOES No. 9 ran out of fuel in late 2003, and it is no longer able to correct the roughly 1 degree of drift off its original orbit that occurs each year.

Meanwhile, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. and Japan's other key aerospace manufacturers will be glad to see the H-2A back in business. They hope it will signal moves to transfer the nation's commercial rocket projects to private enterprises.

The government had initially planned to transfer everything in its rocket projects-from manufacturing to liftoff-to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries in fiscal 2005.

But the 2003 debacle ended all that. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries had already entered talks with suppliers, but ``all plans stopped with the H-2A failure,'' company officials said.(IHT/Asahi: January 25,2005)