Iraqis need to believe that U.S. forces will withdraw.

Campaigning is in full swing in Iraq as the nation gets ready to elect an interim national assembly on Jan. 30. Assuming U.N. resolutions are followed, a referendum will then be held to decide a permanent Constitution.

The next step will be full-fledged national elections that will usher in a new government. We cannot imagine anyone not praying for success next month, as the election process is designed to set the ball rolling for Iraq's reconstruction at the hands of the Iraqi people themselves.

The reality, however, does not warrant optimism. Local television stations rarely show candidates' faces in election-related news. Everyone fears assassination by groups trying to obstruct the elections.

Last Sunday, for example, the Shiite Muslim holy cities of Karbala and Najaf experienced a series of suicide bombings. It is still not certain whether these acts were the work of Sunnis who do not want the majority Shiites to have power, or international terrorist elements set on fanning already bitter animosity between the two groups.

The United States is trying to keep a lid on the violence by reinforcing its troop strength to 150,000-its highest level since the invasion of Iraq. But this is unlikely to stop various groups from trying to sabotage the election.

Even the recent U.S. military assault against Fallujah does not seem to have produced as much results as the U.S. forces claimed. The campaign did indeed claim the lives of many insurgents, but it also further inflamed anti-American sentiment among the Sunnis, who are said to be considering boycotting the January elections.

One question, in fact, is whether fair elections are really possible. Even if they go smoothly in the Kurdish and Shiite regions, could the outcome be considered fair if confusion reigns in areas dominated by Sunnis? The election process could end up dividing the nation, rather than unifying it. Many problems lies ahead.

Yet, we believe the elections must be held as planned. We don't say that just because it represents the first opportunity for the Iraqi people to finally make their wishes clear. ``America's war'' and the accompanying occupation inflicted too much suffering on Iraqis and exacted too many sacrifices from the population. Although their plight is certainly not going to get better overnight, nothing will change unless the Iraqi people take the first step toward self-government. That is the allure of the January elections.

It is, however, vital that the Iraqi people do not see the elections as something forced on them by America.

U.S. President George W. Bush is set on turning Iraq into a showcase of democracy in the Middle East. But Iraqis are hardly enchanted with the idea of going to the polling stations while U.S. forces are still on the ground acting as virtual occupation forces. Even Prime Minister Iyad Allawi of the provisional government has included ``early withdrawal of foreign troops from Iraq and the reinforcement of Iraqi armed forces'' among his campaign pledges.

Bush obviously does not understand the anomaly of the United States taking center stage in the process of Iraq's reconstruction as laid out in U.N. resolutions. Admittedly the United Nations is spread thin. But it has sent a team of election experts to Iraq and trained about 6,000 Iraqis in election management. Bush should leave it to the Iraqis to police their own elections.

It is absolutely vital that Iraqis truly believe the elections will expedite the withdrawal of U.S. forces. This will require the support and cooperation of neighboring nations. Once the United States proves itself to be fully committed to Mideast peace, the atmosphere in Iraq should change.

It would be extremely naive to believe Iraq will be ``democratized'' just because of a fervent hope. The elections are not Aladdin's lamp.

--The Asahi Shimbun, Dec. 22(IHT/Asahi: December 23,2004)