``Japan cannot act like European nations and simply say `OK, goodbye.'''AIDE TO PRIME MINISTER JUNICHIRO KOIZUMI

The government is now confident that the stage is set to approve an extension of the Self-Defense Forces' mission in Iraq. That is because of one man's 5-hour safety assessment of an area with half a million people.

The government, in fact, is so optimistic that it has not even come up with an exit strategy for the Japanese troops should events take a further turn for the worse in the war-ravaged country.

The Cabinet of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi on Thursday is expected to approve the extension of the mission for one year past the Dec. 14 deadline.

But if the government's rosy scenario for Iraq does not come true, Japan could be thrown into confusion, especially if the lives of the troops are at risk in the southern city of Samawah.

Government officials have indicated that December 2005 would be the likely target for withdrawing the SDF from Iraq. A major reason is the political calendar for Iraq.

``The democratization process will be completed by the end of next year and the role of the multinational force will also come to an end,'' Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura has said. ``Based on that, setting a one-year limit would be the most easily understood timing.''

Iraqi parliamentary elections held under a new Constitution would take place in December 2005 to select the first official post-Saddam Hussein government. Once the multinational force's duty in Iraq is complete, the SDF, which is part of that force, would also have finished its mission.

However, a lawmaker of the Liberal Democratic Party specializing in defense matters called the government's plan ``a super-optimistic scenario.''

The deteriorating security situation in Iraq shows no signs of improvement. Violence and terrorist activities threaten to scrap the January elections to pick an interim parliament tasked with writing a new Constitution.

If the establishment of an official Iraqi government is delayed, the government's plan for withdrawing the SDF would also have to be revised.

``Japan cannot act like European nations and simply say `OK, goodbye.''' an aide to Koizumi said.

And even if a new Iraqi government is put in place, Japan could still face a difficult decision if the security situation has not improved measurably.

Government officials want to withdraw the SDF and switch to assistance programs handled by aid organizations once the security situation in Iraq is stable.

But if Iraq continues to be too dangerous for aid workers to enter, Japan would be seen as abandoning its assistance efforts if the SDF leaves without anyone taking its place.

``If Iraq is abandoned even as a situation continues in which assistance cannot be provided because it is too dangerous, there is a high possibility that Japan would be open to criticism,'' one government source said.

There is also the issue about the safety of the troops.

A source close to Koizumi said the government might have to decide on an early withdrawal of the SDF if the dangers are too great and Samawah is no longer considered a noncombat region.

For now, hasty visits to Iraq are serving as the government's final window-dressing on determining if Samawah is safe enough to continue having ground troops stationed there.

Defense Agency chief Yoshinori Ono spent about 5 hours in Samawah on Sunday to assess the security situation. He presented his report to Koizumi on Tuesday.

``While the security situation in Samawah is still unpredictable, it has become more stable,'' Ono said. ``It is important that the SDF continue with its humanitarian assistance activities.''

Ono also reported that the SDF's activities were being welcomed by the citizens of Samawah; that there are many requests for repairing of roads and schools and for medical assistance; that high-level security measures have been taken for the GSDF base; and that local officials had stressed that the security situation had improved.

Ono told reporters after his meeting with Koizumi, ``I believe the environment has been set (for a dispatch extension).''

The Cabinet originally intended to approve a revision of the basic plan under which the SDF was dispatched to Iraq on Friday, paving the way for an extension.

However, approval is being moved up a day because the finishing touches have not been put on the new National Defense Program Outline, which will now likely be approved Friday.

The secretaries-general of the ruling coalition parties-the LDP's Tsutomu Takebe and New Komeito's Tetsuzo Fuyushiba-also made quick trips to Samawah on Monday to see firsthand what the situation was like.

Koizumi is expected to meet with New Komeito chief Takenori Kanzaki and leaders of opposition parties on Thursday, before his Cabinet formally approves the dispatch extension later that day.

The extension will be for a year from Dec. 14.

Ono did tell LDP committees dealing with defense issues that he was concerned about the possibility of rocket attacks against the SDF base.

The camp has been hit by mortars, gunfire and the occasional rocket.

Although the government lacks an exit strategy, sources said discussions have begun on possible measures for different levels of danger to the SDF members.

Still, the government has no experience in such matters. There has never been a case of SDF members dispatched overseas being withdrawn because of an inability to maintain safety.

As one Koizumi aide said: ``We cannot draw the line for withdrawal based on how many SDF members die. In the end, it will depend on common sense.''(IHT/Asahi: December 8,2004)