Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi may have played it safe Wednesday when referring to the U.S. presidential election, but support for George W. Bush remains thinly veiled among many government officials.

``Regardless of which candidate wins, I think the basic recognition of the importance of the friendship and alliance between Japan and the United States will not change,'' Koizumi told reporters at his residence.

Many bureaucrats, however, are quietly pulling for Bush to emerge victorious from Tuesday's polls. Japanese policy has become so entwined with Washington's that officials said a change of guard stateside could possibly upset the foundation on which such ties are based.

Some officials appear reluctant to even consider a victory by the Democratic challenger, Senator John Kerry.

Asked how U.S. policies might change if Kerry were to win, a senior Foreign Ministry official who deals with economic issues said, ``Our thinking is not based on such an assumption.''

Many also fear that a victory for Kerry would usher in four years reminiscent of those under former President Bill Clinton, whose eight-year term was marked by trade rows.

``The Bush administration had tried to shut out all interfering noise,'' said one government official in reference to trade issues being placed on the backburner for the sake of maintaining good bilateral relations.

Other officials expect a few curveballs to come Japan's way, even if Bush emerges victorious.

One of Tokyo's key confidants in Washington, Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, is unlikely to serve a second term, for example. As a result, Tokyo worries it may face more aggressive requests from neo-conservatives.

``I can't think of anybody who could take (Armitage's) place,'' said a senior Foreign Ministry official, pointing to the deputy secretary's ``broad knowledge of Japan'' and ability to reason with Japanese policy-makers.

Armitage was instrumental in relaying Washington's expectations, while showing appreciation for what Tokyo brought to the table.

Concerns already abound that Washington may adopt a more hard-line position and stoke the fight against terrorism and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

``Re-election is a stamp of approval, so it's possible that we could see some big surprises again,'' said a Foreign Ministry official.

``Past presidents who served more than one term tended to be more adventurous with regards to policy implementation in their second term, as they felt freer to do as they pleased,'' the official added.

But given the choice, many bureaucrats prefer dealing with an emboldened Bush than having to build a relationship from scratch with a new administration.

``While the overall policy would be unlikely to change (under a Kerry administration), it would take time to develop the kind of close consultations we currently enjoy,'' said a high-ranking Foreign Ministry official.

A key issue is the lessening of the U.S. ``footprint'' on Okinawa, home to 75 percent of the U.S. military bases in Japan. The government is concerned that it may lose ground already gained on the matter if Kerry were to win.

During a visit to Japan last week, for example, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell and Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura agreed to speed up talks on the reorganization of U.S. forces and to hold strategic dialogue at the ministerial level.(IHT/Asahi: November 4,2004)