This is the second installment of a three-part series on the future of the Self-Defense Forces.

For officials in charge of defending Japan, the year to watch out for is 2008.

Around that time, Defense Agency officials predict China's military will dwarf that of Taiwan, and Beijing may even beef up its air force to a level comparable to the combined power of the Air Self-Defense Force and the U.S. Air Force in Japan.

``The balance of military power between China and Taiwan will tip over to the China side in and after 2008 when the Olympic Games are to be held in Beijing,'' a senior official was quoted as telling former Defense Agency Director-General Fukushiro Nukaga in November. ``That is because China will purchase more Russian-made state-of-the-art Sukhoi Su-27 and Su-30 fighters. The Nansei Islands (Ryukyu and other islands in southwestern Japan) near Taiwan may also be affected.''

The warning was made during the process of compiling Japan's new National Defense Program Outline and the Midterm Defense Buildup Program based on the outline. Senior Defense Agency officials explained the plans to Nukaga, who is currently chief of a ruling coalition project team on security matters.

The agency officials also provided projected military capabilities of Japan and China. They said the combined power of the ASDF and the U.S. Air Force in Japan is currently superior to China's air force-but that situation could change in the years ahead.

To prepare for such a situation, a senior defense official told Nukaga that Japan should replace its F-4 fighters now based in Okinawa Prefecture with F-15s, which can stay airborne four times longer.

The new fighters could cover wider areas over the Nansei Islands, which include the island chains in Okinawa and Kagoshima prefectures, and would put Japan in a superior position against enemy aircraft, the official said.

``It doesn't mean that this will actually happen, but we need the new fighters to serve as support for the nation's diplomacy,'' the agency official was quoted as saying.

Defense capabilities supporting diplomatic efforts had never been talked about so openly before. But then again, postwar Japan has never had such a bold National Defense Program Outline, particularly regarding China.

The idea to relocate the ASDF's F-15 unit to Okinawa was broached when the current National Defense Program Outline was formed in 1995.

The plan did not materialize, however, out of government concerns that it would not be in Japan's interest to give the impression that Tokyo views China as a hypothetical enemy.

In the mid-1990s, the Ground SDF also considered plans for defending the Nansei islands.

``We felt a sense of crisis because it was a time when Beijing came up with a 1992 law on territorial waters that said the Senkaku islands (known as the Diaoyu in China) belonged to China,'' a former GSDF chief of staff said.

In 2002, the GSDF formed an infantry regiment to cover the southwestern islands. But the regiment is based at the GSDF Aiura base in Nagasaki Prefecture.

The GSDF considered stationing the regiment in Okinawa, but gave up the idea because of deep-rooted anti-military sentiment in the prefecture.

But such concerns among Japan's defense planners have all but disappeared.

The new defense outline adopted early in December specifically named China as a nation whose military movements should be monitored.

And in another first, the outline included the responsibility of the SDF to deal with possible invasions on Japan's small islands.

The new midterm defense program also included plans to upgrade the GSDF troops based in Okinawa to a full-fledged brigade, which means adding several hundred troops to the current 1,800.

The Defense Agency wants to relocate the F-15 unit to Okinawa. But it has not included the plan in the long-term national defense outline or the midterm defense buildup program because it expects protests from prospective relocation areas.

Still, Defense Agency officials seem optimistic.

``There should be few among the public who would take issue with our concerns about China and there were no protests from the ruling parties,'' said a senior official who was involved in compiling the outline.

Public sentiment toward China has worsened amid a series of diplomatic problems, including China's expansion of its activities at sea.

In addition to its exploration for undersea natural gas deposits in the East China Sea in areas that Japan considers its exclusive economic zone, a Chinese nuclear-powered submarine entered Japanese territorial waters in November.

A senior Defense Agency official said the submarine's crew seemed familiar with the undersea terrain in Japanese waters. The course the sub took was so deep that it would have crashed on the bottom if the crew did not have a firm grasp of the area.

But is all this concern over China's military warranted?

The Defense Agency made a point of adding the phrase ``as long as the increase in fighters continues at the current pace'' to the estimated buildup in China's air force.

Officials at the Chinese Embassy in Tokyo have protested the recent SDF view, saying that Taiwan may get the wrong idea that it could join forces with Japan in countering Beijing.

Although it is clear that only politics and diplomacy can ease the surging distrust stemming from the military buildup, personnel exchanges of those in uniform are also necessary to ease the tension.

In 1998, then Defense Agency Director-General Fumio Kyuma reached an agreement with Beijing to have uniformed personnel exchange visits.

But those visits have not materialized even six years later partly because of China's anger over Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's repeated visits to Yasukuni Shrine, which Beijing views as a symbol of Japan's military aggression in World War II.(IHT/Asahi: December 29,2004)